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Tag Archives: Czech

Rate Expectation Adjustment Continues

Overview:  Equities are softer and yields higher to start the new week.  The dollar is mixed.  Oil and industrial metals are higher. There are several developments over the weekend, but the focus seems to be on central bank action, inflation reports by the US and China, and the start of the Q3 earnings season.  Shares rallied in Japan and Hong Kong, but most of the other large markets in the region fell.  Recall that the MSCI Asia Pacific slipped last week, its fourth consecutive weekly...

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What to Expect When You are Expecting

Overview: The markets have stabilized since Monday's panic attack but have not made much headway.  China and Taiwan returned from the extended holiday weekend.  Mainland shares were mixed. Shanghai rose by about 0.4%, while Shenzhen fell by around 0.25%.  Taiwan got tagged for 2%, and Japan's Topix was off 1%.  Hong Kong and South Korean markets were closed.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firmer for the second day but is still lower for the week.  US indices barely entered the gap left...

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Challenging Week Ahead

Three macro considerations are shaping the investment climate: the evolution of the virus and the response, the timeframe of the Fed's tapering, and China's broad regulatory crackdown.  Beijing's new policy initiatives are broader and quicker than generally anticipated.  Officials seem to be opening up several different fronts, including anti-trust, data protection, discouraging foreign capital raising, and private education reform.  The common element is reining in what officials may see as...

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Turn Around Tuesday or Dollar Rally Resumes?

Overview:  Firming long-term US yields have lent the dollar support after trading heavily yesterday.  The greenback is around 0.15%-0.50% higher against the major currencies.  The Japanese yen and Canadian dollar are among the more resilient, and the Australian dollar and sterling among the heaviest.  Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, except the South Korean won and Turkish lira.  Even the Hungarian forint, where the central bank is widely expected to be the first EU country to...

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Another Big Week Ahead

Now that the first estimates of Q1 growth in the US, China, and the EMU, which account for around 70% of the world's economy, have been reported, March's economic data will lose some of its gravitas. Indeed, the April PMIs and some other survey data, including business and investor confidence, and a series of regional Fed's manufacturing surveys have already given a taste for how the second quarter is beginning.   And it is strong.  Outside of the final PMI readings, which for large...

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Data and the Virus may Determine the Magnitude of the Dollar’s Bounce

There is no reason to expect the investment climate is going to change next week.  The key drivers remain the same.  The resurgence being seen in the virus is posing a speed bump in the re-opening and recovery process.  The work of monetary and fiscal policy is not over.  The low real and nominal interest rates are encouraging risk-taking by savers, and this means equities, commodities, and emerging markets.  Gold, which is often perceived as a safe haven, appears more driven by the low...

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EU Militarizes Africa To Halt Migration

Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation, Fighting terrorism is now morphing into clamping down on human migration, as far as the European Union is concerned. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is leading the charge, claiming at a conference in Paris last week that terrorism and human trafficking are part of the same problem, requiring the deployment of a military force spread across Africa. The melding of the two concepts provokes serious legal and moral...

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Austria’s Anti-Immigrant Freedom Party Enters Government; Wins Key Ministry Posts

Two months ago, in Europe's latest shocking, anti-establishment outcome, Austria's 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz became the world's youngest leader after his conservative People's Party won the Austrian National Council elections, making him Austria's youngest Chancellor in history, while the establishment Social Democrat party suffered its "worst result since Hitler rule." Sebastian Kurz and his girlfriend Susanne Thier And now, two months later, in a double whammy for Europe's outraged liberal...

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22/10/17: Italian North: another chip off Europe’s Nirvana

Having just written about the Czech electoral pivot toward populism last night, today brings yet another  news headline from the politically-hit Europe.In a non-binding referendums in two wealthiest Italian regions, Veneto and Lombardia, the voters have given local governments strong mandates to push for greater autonomy from Rome and the Federal Government. Both regions are dominated by the politics of Lega Nord, a conservative, autonomy-minded party with legacy of euro scepticism, strong...

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21/10/17: Prague Pages Brussels… Following Vienna

Just after Austria, the Czech Republic too has swung decisively in the direction of embracing populism as Populist billionaire's Eurosceptic party wins big in Czech Republic.As Radio Praha describes it: "The Czech Donald Trump or Silvio Berlusconi, maverick millionaire, political populist, mould breaker; these are all labels that have been tagged on to ANO leader Andrej Babiš".Jakub Patocka for the Guardian: "Open racism has become a normal part of public discourse. Trust in democratic...

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