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Tag Archives: Cycles

Even When It’s Different It’s Really Not

Retail sales grew by 4.92% year-over-year in January 2017, the third consecutive month of gains around 5%. It was the first time for three months near that level since 2014. Given the behavior of the economy in the second half of last year it is almost eerie the similarity in behavior to the 2013-14 period. The statistics for neither period actually indicate recovery and it isn’t actually growth, for if it was it would have been three straight months of 10% or 12% rather than 5%. What is...

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