Tag Archive: Crude Oil

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-12-02

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2017-12-02

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 28/11/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

2017-11-28

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2017-11-28

USD/CHF, November 28
USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 20/11/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD

2017-11-22

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2017-11-22

USD/CHF, November 20
USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 13/11/2017 – USDCHF, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

2017-11-15

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2017-11-15

USD/CHF, November 15
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 06/11/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Euro / Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 06
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 30/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

2017-10-31

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2017-10-31

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 24
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

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Broader Slowing in Industrial Production

2017-10-20

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2017-10-20

US Industrial Production, Jan 1995 - Jul 2017
Industrial Production rose 1.6% year-over-year in September 2017. That’s up from 1.2% growth in August, both months perhaps affected to some degree by hurricanes. The lack of growth and momentum, however, clearly predated the storms. The seasonally-adjusted index for IP peaked in April 2017, and has been lower ever since. This pattern, the disappointment this year is one we see replicated nearly everywhere on both sides (supply as well as demand)...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 09/10/2017 – EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10
EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD features

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

CBOE VIX Gauge, 1990 - 2019
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

2017-10-05

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2017-10-05

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 05
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD features

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 25/09/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

2017-09-28

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2017-09-28

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 23
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD features

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets

2017-09-26

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2017-09-26

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble papered over the annoying lack of...

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Harvey’s Muted (Price) Impact On Oil

2017-09-19

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2017-09-19

US Crude Oil Stocks, Nov 2016 - Sep 2017
The impact of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf energy region is becoming clear. There have been no surprises to date, even though the storm did considerable damage and shuttered or disrupted significant capacity. Most of that related to gasoline, which Americans have been feeling in pump prices.

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COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

2017-09-15

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2017-09-15

Crude Oil, Jan 2006 - Jun 2017
Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some big ones this year.

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FX Weekly Review, September 04 – 09: Draghi Dovish? EUR and USD falling against CHF

2017-09-10

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2017-09-10

The euro rose close to CHF 1.15 with the ECB meeting this week. Finally traders realized that the ECB committed not to hike rates for a very long time. The ECB will review and take a first decision on the bond purchasing program this autumn. However, this program will come to an end only when the inflation target of 2% becomes in reach.

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FX Weekly Review, August 28 – September 02: The end of big euro rise?

2017-09-03

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2017-09-03

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 2
For us, the sudden euro rise from 1.08 to 1.14 is an illusion, the euro will fall sooner or later again. Macron will not help the French economy and low core inflation will prevent that the ECB ends her bond buying program.

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FX Weekly Review, August 21 – August 26: Dollar Loses its Gains Against CHF

2017-08-26

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2017-08-26

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 26
The broad technical condition of the dollar deteriorated materially before the weekend. The dollar had some gains versus the franc during the last month, but it lost all during the last days.The EURCHF continues with a 2.5% win for the last month.

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United States: Lack Of Industrial Momentum Is (For Now) Big Auto Problems

2017-08-22

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2017-08-22

US Industrial Production, Jan 2006 - Jul 2017
Industrial Production disappointed in the US last month, dragged down by auto production. Despite the return of an oil sector tailwind, IP was up just 2.2% year-over-year in July 2017 according to Federal Reserve statistics. It marks the fourth consecutive month stuck around 2% growth. The lack of further acceleration is unusual in the historical context, especially following an extended period of contraction.

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FX Weekly Review, August 14 – August 19: CHF Recovers after Dovish Draghi Comments

2017-08-20

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2017-08-20

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 19
The euro has lost some momentum, Draghi does not want to talk about an early end of his bond buying programming. Confirmed by economic data, 1.2% core inflation compared to a long-term inflation target of 2%. Consequently the Swiss appreciated during the week.

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