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Tag Archives: CPI

The Historic Christmas Binge

The reason that store shelves are occasionally empty, as any social media hashtag trend will tell you, is that Americans are still buying an amazing amount of goods. For December 2021, Christmas was hardly canceled. The Census Bureau today reported that retailers during the biggest month of last year, of every year, grabbed an astoundingly huge $714 billion in overall sales. Almost three-quarters of a trillion in a single month.Not just the finale, though, total retail during the whole of...

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US CPI Reaches Seven On US Goods Prices, With Disinflation Setting In Everywhere Else (incl. US Services)

How is that US Treasury rates out in the independent longer end of the yield curve have now “suffered” a seven percent CPI to go along with double taper and triple maybe quadruple (if the whispers are to be believed) rate hikes this year, yet have weathered all of that allegedly bond-busting brutality with barely a market fluctuation? The short end of the curve, as noted here, is being pressured by only the last of those things, rate hikes, and from them creating the malodorous Conundrum...

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Could it be another Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact for the Dollar on the US Jobs Report?

Overview:  The focus is on the US employment report today to culminate the week that has seen a sharp backing up of interest rates, egged on by what were seen as hawkish FOMC minutes.  US equities, especially the high-flying tech sector, slumped amid the rising interest rates.  US shares pared losses late yesterday and those constructive impulses carried over into Asia Pacific trading today.  Although Japan and Taiwan markets fell, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia's bourses advanced by...

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One Shock Case For ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Reaching A Quarter-Century

Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the facts. First up, yesterday the Federal Reserve published the November 2021 estimates for Industrial Production in the United States. As has been the case around the rest of...

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Taper Rejection

For the FOMC, there was no alternative. The CPI’s keep going higher while the unemployment rate continues lower. Those who are Economists and practice Economics’ brand of econometrics, these would be scary times ahead. Inflationary times unless someone puts a stop to them first. Not because of consumer prices today, but because officials are worried consumers are becoming normalized to these high rates of price acceleration. If the public and businesses all begin to expect these to...

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Omicron Fears Fading, CPI Huge-r Still, Fed Hinting At Accelerated Taper, And Yet Euro$ Inversion (and other things) Is Still Here

The bond market is imploding, right? It has to be going by everything you hear. Did you know that the last two 30-year bond auctions had gone “awry”, as one mainstream news outlet put it? Another “media” shop declared them “catastrophic.”The second of those long bond sales was conducted just yesterday afternoon, right in time to run into the buzzsaw of the November CPI figures released today. According to the BLS, yep, the highest rate of general consumer price increases going...

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The Higher The CPI, The Less For Inflation

It hurts, so people want to know what to blame. Who should they punish for inflicting their pain? Enter human bias and the emotional processing of preconceived conclusions, “inflation” is no longer a topic which can be discussed rationally. A statistical weapon instead to be wielded attempting to settle other debates.Joe Biden did it. No, this is a Biden Boom, must still be Trump’s fault somehow. Damn that Fed and its money printing! Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part...

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Will US Inflation Continue To Accelerate?

Yes, according to economists’ forecast for this Friday’s November update (Dec. 10) on consumer prices. Econoday.com’s consensus point forecast anticipates that the consumer price index (CPI) at the headline level will ramp up to a 6.8% year-over-year increase. If correct, consumer inflation will accelerate to the highest annual rate since the early 1980s. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is lower, which is encouraging because this profile of inflation...

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Inflation History Everyone Should Know (but only certain people do)

Supply shock versus inflation. There’s a huge difference, both in terms of what causes each and how they play out. As discussed in great detail here, it is the bond market not central bankers which repeatedly has proved it can sort out this enormously consequential distinction. Bonds know if there is an overflow of money, they need to pay attention and work out to price how it would last.If no money, it won’t bother longer-term yields because however severe the consumer price bulge in the...

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Transitory Inflation Outlook Remains Challenged

It’s premature to rule out the possibility that US inflation will peak in the months ahead, but recent projections that the peaking is imminent and will reflect a sharp decline in pricing pressure now looks unlikely. Today’s update of CapitalSpectator.com’s Inflation Trend Index (ITI), a multi-factor profile of pricing behavior that attempts to model real-time trending activity, suggests that the peaking process will extend for longer than recently expected. Also, ITI is now...

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