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Tag Archives: #covid_19

13/11/20: The economy has two chronic illnesses (and neither are Covid)

My column for The Currency this week covers two key long-term themes in the global economy that pre-date the pandemic and will remain in place well into 2025: the twin secular stagnations hypotheses and the changing nature of the productivity. The link to the article is here; https://thecurrency.news/articles/28224/the-economy-has-two-chronic-illnesses-and-neither-are-covid/.  

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7/11/20: BRIC: Composite Economic Indicators for October

 I covered BRIC Manufacturing and Services PMIs for October in two earlier posts (see here https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/51120-bric-services-pmis-october.html), so now, Composite PMIs:Brazil Composite PMI rose to 55.9 in October, compared to 51.6 in 3Q 2020, and currently sits above Global Composite PMI of 53.3. The latest increase in PMI is a robust signal of partial recovery, marking the third consecutive month of > 50.0 readings that followed five consecutive months of...

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5/11/20: BRIC: Services PMIs October

In the earlier post, I covered BRIC economies manufacturing PMIs for October: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/31120-bric-manufacturing-pmis-october.html. Now, leet's take a look at Services PMI.As the chart above illustrates:Brazil Services PMI rose from 47.5 in 3Q 2020 to 52.3 in October. Prior to October, Brazil's services sector was in a contractionary territory for three consecutive quarters. October marks the second month of above 50.0 readings, although...

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3/11/20: Ireland PMIs and Economic Activity Dynamics for October

October PMI data for Ireland is showing serious strains from the pandemic and wave 2 on the economic activity: Manufacturing PMI for October came at a recessionary 48.3, marking a moderation on rapid contraction in the sector activity in September (45.8). This marks the second consecutive month of the Manufacturing PMI reading sub-50, and follows two months of partial (at best) recovery in July and August.Services sector PMI for October was at 50.3 - a statistically indifferent reading from...

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3/11/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs October

 BRIC's manufacturing PMIs are out for October, marking the start of Q4 2020. Overall, the results reinforce Q3 2020 trends highlighted here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html. Brazil posted further acceleration in the recovery momentum with Manufacturing PMI rising to 66.7 from 3Q 2020 62.6. 3Q 2020 was the historical record quarter for Brazil's Manufacturing PMI readings. Brazil's Manufacturing PMIs have now strengthened every month since May...

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3/11/20: Monte dei Paschi is Eying Another Capital Raise?

Remember them? One of Europe's largest banks? Check. The oldest bank in the world with continued trading since 1472? Check. The first bank in history to require a sovereign rescue? Check. In 1624, the Medici Grand Duke of Tuscany rushed to guarantee the deposits of a bank at a time of economic crisis. The only bank in known history that has been bailed out at least five times and nationalised at least twice? Check.Yep, right, we have the new old news from Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di...

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2/11/2020: Technological Deepening and De-globalization post-COVID

Interesting insights from McKinsey on changes in technology adoption in response to COVID19 pandemic:In the ed, I marked two types of technological frontier shifts: the ones relating to displacement of status quo-ante in supply chains - re-orientation from China; and the ones relating to technological deepening. Both are the legacy of the U.S. political and economic shift toward de-globalization. 

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24/10/20: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is Falling, Again

One of thee major casualties of the COVID19 pandemic has been the U.S. labor market. However, with an allegedly robust recovery under way, we are seeing significant improvements across some metrics of labor markets health. In some, but not all.Take labor force participation rate:Labor force participation rate is a critical metric for gauging employment conditions in the economy, because it reflects not only the availability of jobs in the market, but the perception amongst the workers of...

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