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Tag Archives: #COVID19

4/7/20: COVID19 Update: World Cases and Deaths

No over-the-peak, yet for world cases: Deaths are persistently high, and trending up, and are too far lagged to reflect that last 10 days of massive global uplifts in new cases. 7-days average of deaths is at 4,625, which is 0.62 standard deviations higher than the average, and is slightly above the 60-days average of 4,590: Death rates and new cases stats for select countries: 50 most impacted (by case numbers) countries in alphabetical order: Meanwhile, 4th of July crowds are...

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4/7/20: ifo Institute Eurozone Growth Outlook

Germany's ifo Institute issued a new growth outlook for Eurozone economy:"Overall, the eurozone economy is likely to see a sharp recession in the first half of 2020.  "GDP already contracted in Q1 by 3.6%.  "In Q2, the decline of GDP is forecast to be historic (-12.3%).  "On the other hand, the recovery is likely to be quick supported by massive stimuli in some eurozone countries with GDP growth reaching +8.3% in Q3 and +2.8% in Q4 2020.  "Yet, the GDP level at the end of last year will...

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3/7/20: Labor Market COVID19ed

I have been running a regular update on my 'America's Scariest Charts' covering labor markets developments (see most recent one here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/2720-americas-scariest-charts-updated.html). These charts rely heavily on two data sets: Non-Farm Payrolls data (monthly frequency), and initial unemployment claims (weekly frequency). I ignored for now two other data series:Average duration of unemployment: this is, of course, rising, but from low levels, as the...

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3/7/20: Services & Composite PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC

Note: charts below are not updated for full 2Q 2020 data on Global Services and Composite PMIs, which are yet to be reported for June and thus cover April-May period only. I will update these later.Starting with Services sector activity: BRIC Services index fell from a deeply recessionary 44.9 reading for 1Q 2020 to 40.9 in 2Q 2020, signalling accelerated rate of contraction in the sector across the four emerging markets economies. 1Q 2020 is now the second lowest quarter of index...

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3/7/20: ECB Jumping the Proverbial Shark?

ECB's money-printing press has been running overtime these weeks. So let's put the Euro area central banks' monetary policy shenanigans into perspective, comparing them to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) related measures, the Euro area sovereign debt crisis and the subsequent painful recovery: Good thing: ECB has deployed COVID19 response at scale and fast. Bad thing: it is highly uncertain how much growth all of this activism is going to sustain. From 2000 through 1Q 2020, there is...

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2/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27

A quick update of key charts for USA vs EU27 comparatives for COVID19:First up: deaths per 1 million. U.S. continues to tear away from the EU27 already unenviable record: The basket case of American 'public health' system is shining across the board: in numbers roaring above the past records: And in deaths counts staying well above those in Europe: At this stage, it is plain evident that the U.S. healthcare system is not fit for purpose.Unless its purpose is to bankrupt those getting...

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2/7/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

Some updates from the US Labour Markets to our America's Scariest Charts series today.First, headline official Non-Farm Payrolls data for the month of June 2020 is out today. Here is the visual:Total Non-Farm Payrolls dropped during the COVID19 pandemic to the crisis-period low of 130,303,000 in April 2020. This marks a drop of 22,160,000 on pre-crisis high - a decline of 14.53%, the sharpest drop on record for any recession. Since then, the payrolls improved in May and again in June....

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1/7/20: COVID19 Update: Three Charts on COVID19 Developments in Major Emerging Markets

Via Danske Bank Research, three really neat sets of visualizations for abating COVID19 crisis dynamics in major emerging markets: Note: the number of tests per capita in Russia is in part explaining the lower death rates from COVID19 there. Russia runs earlier testing and interventions, leading to longer stays in hospitals, higher hospitalization rates with lower ICU use rates, allowing for earlier interventions. However, Russia also produces death statistics for COVID19 that are...

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1/7/20: Manufacturing PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC

BRIC economies reported their June manufacturing PMIs, so we can update Q2 2020 data. Here is the chart: Despite improving PMIs in all BRIC economies through June 2020, quarterly readings remains deeply recessionary in all BRICs except for China.Brazil Manufacturing PMI averaged 40.6 in 2Q 2020 down from 1Q reading of 50.6. Brazil Manufacturing sector growth was slowing down from the start of 4Q 2019 and was showing anaemic growth (statistically, zero growth) in 1Q 2020 before COVID19...

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