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Tag Archives: #COVID19

14/4/21: The share of those in unemployment > 27 weeks is rising

One way to look at the state of the real (as opposed to financialized and corporate-value focused) economy is to look at unemployment. And one of the strongest indicators of longer term changes in the structure of the real economy is the fate of the longer term unemployed. Here is an interesting snapshot of data: the percentage of those unemployed for 27 week or longer in the total pool of the unemployed. The higher the number, the more structural is the unemployment problem. If the above is...

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8/4/21: No Inflation Cometh?

Having written about strengthening signals of rising inflation globally and in the U.S. in particular before, here is today's note from Markit on the matter: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/global-price-gauge-hits-new-high-as-input-cost-inflation-accelerates-sharply-Apr21.html To quote: global inputs inflation pressures are at their highest since 2008:By sector:Factory gate prices are scaling up:Manufacturing supply shortages at nearly historical highs:Prices of all, but financial...

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6/4/21: Edelman Trust Barometer: the Age of Cognitive Dissonance?

Some shocking, genuinely shocking data from the Edelman Global Trust Barometer for 2021. Let's take a look. Start with this: Welcome to the world where sociopaths like Jeff Bezos are both trusted to be competent and perceived to be ethical. Meanwhile, at least w are catching up with what is happening in the tech sector:And with the Social Media...But we can't be human without some serious cognitive dissonance... Healthcare is now the second most trusted sector of business in America. Yep,...

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5/4/21: BRIC’s Manufacturing PMIs: 1Q 2021

Given a lot of noise about economic re-opening and abatement of the late 2020 wave of the pandemic, we expected BRIC countries PMIs to improve significantly in 1Q 2021 compared to 4Q 2020. Alas, the opposite took place:Brazil Manufacturing PMI fell from 64.1 in 4Q 2020 to 55.9 in 1Q 2021. All three months of 1Q 2021 came in sub-60 (all three months of 4Q 2020 were above 60) and March 2021 was the lowest monthly reading since June 2020.Russia Manufacturing PMI slipped from 51.5 in February to...

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2/4/21: America’s Scariest Chart: U.S. Employment Situation

Now, the last of the series of posts on U.S. labor markets, concluding with America's Scariest Chart, plotting the index of employment (jobs) in the U.S. based on each recession-recovery cycle:Despite some positive headline numbers on some labor market metrics, jobs creation in the U.S. is not  progressing well-enough to claim any end in sight for the Covid19-induced recession. Current reading for jobs index, relative to pre-recession highs is woeful. So woeful, today's state of U.S. markets...

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2/4/21: U.S. Duration of Unemployment

One of the America's Scariest Charts - a long-term running issue I have been highlighting for a number of years now - is roaring back to prominence as Covid19 pandemic crisis continues to impact U.S. labor markets across virtually all possible metrics of health.Here it is: the average duration of unemployment spells:Unemployment spells become short at the start of the recession as new vintage unemployed join the ranks of long term unemployed. As the recovery sets in, unemployment duration...

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2/4/21: U.S. New Unemployment Claims

Continuing with the coverage of core statistics for the U.S. labor markets performance. This post covers new unemployment claims through March 20, 2021, with the last two weeks of data being preliminary estimates.In the week through March 20, 2021, new unemployment claims fell to 656,789, or four weeks running total of 2,892,799 dipping below the peak of the Great Recession levels of 4 weeks total of 3,313,000. This is the good news.The bad news is that latest reading would rank 58th worst...

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2/4/21: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

 In the first part of the series of updates on the U.S. labor markets, I covered continued unemployment claims (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-continued-unemployment-claims.html), followed by the second post covering labor force participation and employment-to-population ratio (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-labor-force-participation-and.html).Now, consider total non-farm payrolls - a measure of jobs present in the economy:Total non-farm payrolls rose...

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