Friday , July 30 2021
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Tag Archives: continued jobless claims

Rising Probability For A Second Payroll Minus (and its implications)

Revolving consumer credit declined again in November 2020, according to data released by the Federal Reserve last week. Though the monthly seasonally-adjusted change was small, it still represents significant uncertainty and material mistrust of the underlying economic condition among a broad section of consumers. Those who are paying down their credit card balances, while avoiding taking on higher revolving debts, they are the very consumers Fed policymakers are counting on to lead any...

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)

Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had fulfilled the monetary policy mandates – both of them.A labor shortage would’ve meant full or maximum employment, the absolute best any economy...

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Weeks of Weak Claims On Growing Claims of Weeks of Weak Demand

At some point, the thing actually has to happen. You can only keep talking about the thing for so long before people start to get wise. And most people, especially those in the public who understandably don’t following the thing closely, or the things related to it, are incredibly patient. Time and time again, they prove willing to give experts, officials, anyone with the “right” pedigree substantial leeway. It’s temporary, dare I write “transitory” though. In 2018, we kept hearing about...

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Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way to the end of October.First alerted to this possibility by jobless claims because these figures are the closest to real-time...

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It Just Isn’t Enough

The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state. Government officials have decided to pause their efforts for two weeks so as to try and sort out what “might” be widespread fraud.The state is also using this time to get after a substantial backlog of previous initial claims yet to be processed. So, possibly fewer...

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‘Remains Structurally Unsound’

Does anyone remember “transitory?” I know I do. I spent years ridiculing the idea. But after 2019’s interest rate debacle, cuts rather than hikes, the Federal Reserve very quietly banished that particular word. This was, of course, during the course of the central bank’s “exhaustive” study surrounding its major inflation puzzle. “Transitory” had been the primary way in which Fed officials kept deluding themselves, therefore leading the entire institution (and the public) directly into such...

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Unfortunately Like Old Times: Back To Being The Star of the Payroll Show

The star of the show once again was the unemployment rate. Since the ratio is a byproduct of the Household Survey, not the Establishment Survey, that means the surprise upside in the other labor survey overshadowed the slowing rate of change in the payroll number everyone usually watches so much more closely. The headline figure gained +1.37mm payrolls (Est. Survey) in August 2020, though the private sector managed only +1.03mm of them (you’ve no doubt heard about ramping up Census hiring)....

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Vague Inflation Promises Vs. Ongoing Labor Market Destruction

Why the big deal about the Fed’s new grand strategy? For one thing, as noted yesterday, there’s that whole lost decade which policymakers finally have acknowledged. They’ve quite a lot of catching up to do, but have waited for the most inopportune moment to…basically do more of the same things that hadn’t accomplished anything other than lose an entire decade.Already questions and it hasn’t even begun. The urgency of today is plainly obvious. You start out with a decade’s worth of a hole...

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More Uncovered, The Monster Belying Monster Jobs Numbers

I’ve always disliked the ritual of Payroll Friday because that’s what it is. The BLS doesn’t even measure the change in payrolls, for crying out loud. The government attempts to define a very wide interval into which the real labor market may have fallen. Even then it’s nothing like precision, especially at a low 90% confidence interval.And don’t get me started on adjusting them for population, which no one does (+200k in 2019 was nowhere near what +200k had suggested in 1999 or 1984).These...

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Momentum Lost? Private Income Corroborates Possibility Presented By Claims

Entering 2020, before overreactions to COVID and the shutdown they brought, private income derived from all sources had slowed to the lowest rate since 2010 (not counting 2013, that year skewed by tax changes which were implemented finishing up 2012). According to the latest annual revisions for it, last year, 2019, was a bit more recessionary than previously thought especially in the middle and toward the end at least where private income was concerned. And since income’s the whole...

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