Wednesday , June 19 2019
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Tag Archives: confidence

Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Volatility, Oil, Dollar, & Rates

Over the last three weeks, we have discussed the “sellable rally” in the markets. However, one of the more stunning movements in the market was in interest rates which have fallen sharply in recent months as “deflation” and “economic weakness” have become points of concern for the Federal Reserve. Just last year, the Federal Reserve was hiking rates with the expectations of stronger economic growth and rising inflationary pressures from a tight labor market. Almost a year later, the markets,...

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Technically Speaking: The “Sellable Rally” Chart Review

Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a “sellable rally” following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit: “This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term ‘sellable’ rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets only need some mildly positive news at this point to spur a ‘short-covering’ rally. I would encourage you to use it to reduce risk, rebalance holdings, and raise cash until the ‘trade war smoke’ clears. The market...

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Technically Speaking: Tops Are Processes, Bottoms Are Events

In April of 2018, I posted an article laying out 10-reasons why the “bull market” had likely ended for a while. To wit: “I highly suggest you use any substantial rally to reduce risk and rebalance portfolios accordingly. Why? Because I am going to out on a limb and making a call.’I think the 9-year old bull market may have ended in February.’”  As I stated then: “In 2015, the market plunged as Fed Chair Janet Yellen brought QE3 to its conclusion and started hiking interest rates for the first...

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Powell Channels Bernanke: “Subprime Debt Is Contained”

I recently discussed one of the biggest potential “flash points” for the financial markets today – corporate debt. What I find most fascinating is how quickly many dismiss the issue of corporate debt with the simple assumption of “it’s not the subprime mortgage market.” Correct, it’s not the subprime mortgage market. As I noted previously: “Combined, there is about $1.15 trillion in outstanding U.S. leveraged loans (this is effectively “subprime” corporate debt) — a record that is double the...

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Technically Speaking: Rothschild’s Investing Rule

Since the markets were closed yesterday for “Memorial Day,” there isn’t much for us to update technically from this past weekend’s missive.  However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers (Try 30-days FREE) with respect to where the S&P 500 is currently trading and why we expect a short-term bounce. To wit: As noted previously, SPY tested, and failed, at the bottom of the uptrend line from both the 2017 post-election bounce and the 2016 lows. SPY has now corrected...

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Fundamentally Speaking: 7-Measures Suggest A Decade Of Low Returns

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett Just recently, I discussed the importance of valuations as it relates to investors who are close to retirement age. To wit: “Unless you have contracted ‘vampirism,’ then you do NOT have 90, 100, or more, years to invest to gain ‘average historical returns.’ Given that most investors do not start seriously saving for retirement until the age of 35, or older, they have about 30-35 years to reach their goals. If that period happens...

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Strike Three: The Next Bear Market Ends The Game

At the beginning of this year, I was at dinner with my wife. Sitting at the table next to us, was a young financial advisor, who was probably in his mid-30’s, meeting with his client who appeared to be in his 60’s. Of course, the market had just experienced a 20% correction from the previous peak and the client was obviously concerned about his portfolio. “Don’t worry, there is always volatility in the market, but as you can see, even bear markets are mild and on average the market returns 8%...

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What Could Go Wrong? The Fed’s Warns On Corporate Debt

“So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they...

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The Great Stock Buyback Debate

I recently wrote about stock buybacks in our weekly newsletter. However, a recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018’s $1.085 trillion record total. “By the numbers: Companies so far have spent $272 billion on buybacks, data compiled by Mike Schoonover, COO of Catalyst Funds, for Axios shows. Between the lines: The amount of spending on buybacks announced by companies in the...

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Technically Speaking: A Warning About Chasing This Bull Market

This past weekend, we discussed the breakout of the markets to all-time highs. The question I asked this past weekend was simply; “The bull market is back, but can it stay?” When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of “wisdom” was: “Exactly how many warnings do need before you...

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