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Tag Archives: commodities

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 49; Part 3: Consuming Consumer Data

49.3 Week 48 of ‘Record’ Jobless ClaimsLearn how to reconcile a positive surge in retail sales with a nightmare string of ‘record’ jobless claims and lousy sentiment reported by the University of Michigan consumer survey. Perhaps pent up demand? Maybe. An unusual, poorly explained seasonal adjustment boost? Maybe too. ———SPONSOR——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international...

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Is the Post-COVID Boom Going to Bust?

Yves here. As long-standing readers know, we’ve never exhibited much interest in economic forecasts since even macroeconomists admit they are horrifically unreliable once you get beyond 6 months. Forecasts seemed particularly uninteresting in the post crisis era when a lot of people were trying to paint happy faces on what was eventually declared to be secular stagnation. The much more interesting stories were things like how if evah would the Fed back out of ZIRP, the continuing rise of...

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Hot Oil, Cold Weather, Uncle Sam’s Green

For a couple of weeks, the $600 payments from Uncle Sam seemed to have found their way into the tanks of Americans driving their automobiles a little bit more than they had. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the total amount of gasoline “supplied” by the domestic marketplace reached 8.4 mbpd the second week of February. Like retail sales, pretty compelling correlation to that last dose of fiscal-ity written out of Treasury the end of last year.The latest weekly...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 49; Part 2: A Herstatt Model ’74 Eurodollar

49.2 Do Not Rule Out a Market Panic Next MonthA Financial Times column warns of a US Treasury Bill air pocket in March. Learn the little-known history of a mid-market, 1970s German bank that compelled regulators to move towards capital and supplementary leverage ratios. The very ratios that may now trigger uncertainty. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment...

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Some Important Tips on ‘Inverted’ TIPS

Sell-off. No, rout. Heck with that, Armageddon! It really had been that hysterical at times, and not just because it was declared a foregone conclusion. Certainly a big part of it, the faux certainty, more than that the gross overhyping of what really had been a relatively small change; the whole mainstream was afire with an inflationary mountain fashioned from the smallest (yet) reflationary molehill.No one seemed willing to factor how these had kept getting weaker. Maybe it was because...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 47; Part 1: Touring The Technocrats

49.1 The Eurodollar World Tour: AUS, JPN, USA & GERWhat are monetary technocrats / financiers doing to save the world economy? We review: yield curve control in Australia (and Japan!), American regulators tip-toeing away from a once-favored LIBOR alternative, and the ecstatic economic expectations of German financiers. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment...

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Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14-basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery. Of course, anyone who’s been paying attention knows that rates have been rising for almost a year...

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Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 46; Part 4: Will Our Bonus Content Overheat The Overheating Hot Economy?

46.4 BONUS MAKING MORE SENSE: Will Biden’s stimulus overheat the US economy?Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an article from The Economist. The magazine offers three arguments why the US economy might overheat in 2021: evidence that the downturn is temporary; generous fiscal stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five components to it; others...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 2: Sin City Roulette, The Endangered Gazelles

46.2 Nevada Solution to Covid Economy: CEO as RulerNevada’s tourism economy has been wrecked by the Corona. Governor Sisolak, to encourage investment, is proposing to offer corporations to set up their own local government structures. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five components to it; others put the tally at...

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