Thursday , October 17 2019
Home / Tag Archives: $CNY

Tag Archives: $CNY

Fickle Market Tempers Enthusiasm

Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same time, Hong Kong is becoming another front in the US-Sino confrontation.  Asia Pacific stocks moved higher, except China and India. The Nikkei and Topix gapped higher for the third consecutive...

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Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit. Reports suggest the demonstrators in Hong Kong are considering ending...

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Setback for the Greenback

Overview: Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the others slipped lower. The 0.9% gain in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to lift European stocks, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near the week's lows. US shares also are trading softer. Benchmark...

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Markets Unsettled to Start the Week

Overview: The global capital markets are uneasy as the risks that have dominated investors' concerns--trade and Brexit--remain front and center today. Expectations are low that this week's talks between the US and China will lead to a breakthrough or will be sufficient to postpone further the next round of tariff increases set for next week.  The UK government has indicated it will challenge Parliament's effort to block a no-deal exit to the Supreme Court. Equities in Asia Pacific...

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A Busy Week Begins Quietly

Overview: As the quarter ends, the capital markets are mixed. Equities in Asia Pacific were heavier, except in Hong Kong and Australia, while shares were mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed through the European morning. US shares are trading firmer. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are 2-3 basis points higher, though Australia's bond yield was up seven basis points. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are bearing the brunt of the stronger US dollar today. The Aussie is...

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What the Charts Say: Lower Yields and Softer Equities?

Disappointing flash PMI figures helped push the euro to new lows for the year last week to almost $1.09.  The dollar rose against most of the major currencies.  The dollar bloc fared the best, while no-deal Brexit fears and dovish comments by a traditional hawk at Bank of England took the wind from sterling's sails and sent it roughly two-cents lower (~1.5%).  The dollar was also firmer against nearly all the emerging market currencies.  The Turkish lira bucked the pressure, though and...

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Dreadful European Flash PMI Drags the Euro Lower

Overview: The critics who claim the ECB's policy response was disproportionate got a rude shock today with the unexpected weakness revealed by the flash PMI. The euro looks to re-visit the lows set recently near $1.0925. Sentiment has also been eroded by the poor South Korean export figures. Asia Pacific equities moved lower, though Tokyo markets were closed. Indian equities, however, continue their pre-weekend surge. Investors are bidding up Indian shares (5% before the weekend and 3%...

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Look for Yuan Weakness and Yen Strength to Begin the Week

The Japanese yen and Canadian dollar were the only major currencies to gain against the US dollar last week.  They are also the only major currencies to appreciate against the dollar so far this year.  US President Trump's apparent playing down of the pressure to strike a partial deal with China before the 2020 election weighed on stocks and lifted the so-called safe-haven currencies ahead of the weekend.  When everything was said and done, from the attack on Saudi Arabia to the money...

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China Nastier Number Four

Officials in China seem to be taking a page out of Mario Draghi’s playbook. Before Europe was pushed to the bring of recession, the President of Europe’s central bank would downplay any weakness in the European economy. In 2018 especially, Draghi frequently referred to 2017 as if it was something special. No cause for concern, he reassured, any softening was just the Continent slowing down from really awesome growth. With the ECB restarting QE last month, he hasn’t used that reference in some...

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Jump in Yields Didn’t Derail Equity Rally While Sterling Rallies Ahead of the Weekend on (misplaced) Brexit Optimism

The most striking thing about last week's price action was the surge in US yields.  The 10-year yield jumped about 34 basis points, the most in three years and returned to levels not seen since August 2 (1.90%).  A deluge of investment-grade corporate bonds and US Treasuries ($78 bln auctioned to lukewarm reception), coupled with an acceleration of core CPI (highest in 11 years), optimism on the trade front, and Mnuchin's insistence on pushing forward with an extra-long bond, (50, and...

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