Thursday , April 2 2020
Home / Tag Archives: Capital Markets

Tag Archives: Capital Markets

12/6/19: Credit Markets vs Banks Loans: Europe vs US

Related to the earlier post on investment markets composition by intermediary (see: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2019/06/12619-investment-intermediaries-europe.html), here is more evidence, via @jerrycap of the massive share of intermediated debt / banks dependency in European markets: A caveat worth noting: European data includes the UK, where equity markets and hybrid financing are both more advanced than in the Continental Europe, which suggests that the share on non-bank share...

Read More »

12/6/19: Investment Intermediaries: Europe vs U.S.

Investment markets intermediaries by type and origin (via @schuldensuehner): Caveat: In the case of Ireland and Switzerland, the data is not representative of the domestic markets.Loads of interesting insights, but one macro-level important is the role of the non-banking investment players, especially domestic ones, in the economies of the U.S. and Germany, Italy, Spain and France. This highlights the huge role of direct investment channels (equity, debt, hybrids) in the U.S. market and...

Read More »

Correlation

The healthiest momentum has been in foreign developed stocks and energy commodities. We believe this is also a segment of the capital markets with no correlation to other parts of the market, providing good potential returns and diversification. The correlation figure measures how each asset return moves in relationship to the broader basket of asset returns listed on the X axis. When correlations are high or rising, it may indicate that economic movements and sentiment are...

Read More »

Citi’s “What If?” Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 "What If" scenarios that didn't make it into the Citi Credit team's (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi's "base case" was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank's credit team wrote "what about the outcomes that didn’t quite make it into our base case? The scenarios that aren’t central, but which aren’t entirely implausible either – both...

Read More »

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict "black swan" events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura's Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition that is impossible. "However, its close cousin the grey swan can be foreseen. These are the unlikely but impactful events that,...

Read More »

Russia Plans First-Ever Sale Of Yuan Bonds

As Russia braces for further sanctions from Washington D.C. over their alleged role in "meddling" in the 2016 U.S. election, they are reportedly prepping a $1 billion yuan-denominated bond issuance in an effort to preemptively diversify financing risks away from the West.  According to Bloomberg, the sale will total 6 billion yuan and could come as early as next week. Russia hired Bank of China Ltd., Gazprombank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. to arrange investor...

Read More »

114 Italian Banks (Roughly 23%) Have NPLs Exceeding Tangible Assets

Authored by Mike Shedlock via www.themaven.net/mishtalk, 114 Italian banks have non-performing loans that exceed tangible capital. Ratios above 100% are signs of severe stress... The headline image is from the from ilsole24ore.com. The article is dated March 25, 2017. The translated headline reads "Here are the 114 Italian banks at risk for suffering" The image shows 24 banks where non-performing loans total 200% or more of tangible assets. The image title...

Read More »

Gresham’s Law

Authored by Ted Rivelle via TCW.com, This year’s Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Richard Thaler, a pioneer of behavioral economics. But there is a tale told by a lesser known Nobel laureate, Kenneth Arrow. As a World War II weather officer, he was tasked with analyzing the reliability of the army’s long-range weather forecasts. His conclusion: statistically speaking, the forecasts weren’t worth the paper they were printed on. Captain Arrow sent along his report only...

Read More »

Deutsche: Every Time We Asked “How Much Lower Could Vol Go” Things Would Become Unpleasant

According to Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic, we live in a reflexive world, one where "the Fed knows that the market knows and the market knows that the Fed knows that the market knows, so everyone knows, but pretends that nobody knows and the game goes on." That pretty much covers much of modern market analysis which, like some mutant version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, implies that it is impossible to know the value of assets without also taking into account what the Fed...

Read More »

SEC Hires JPM Banker As Its Most Important Markets Regulator; May Blow Up HFTs

Yes, it's another glaring case of "revolving door" cronyism between Wall Street and the SEC: on Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced it had hired Brett Redfearn, a JPMorgan banker, to head the agency's Division of Trading and Markets, arguably the most important group within the SEC, one which oversees U.S. stock markets and brokerages. Redfearn, who is currently head of market structure at JPM, would fill a slot that has been vacant since January when the previous head...

Read More »