Tuesday , September 17 2019
Home / Tag Archives: $CAD. $EUR

Tag Archives: $CAD. $EUR

Gaming the ECB and Putting the Cart Before Horse in the Brexit Drama

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best.    The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture.  The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that.  Italy has a new government, but a prolonged honeymoon is unlikely for this unlikely union.  Face-to-face talks between the US and China are better than no talks but hardly indicates an end to the tariff war. ...

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US Dollar Finishing August on Firm Note as Euro nears Two-Year Lows

Overview:  Global equities are advancing at least in part on ideas that trade tensions are easing.  China announced it would not take immediate action on the five percentage point increase in levies that the US announced strictly in response to China's retaliatory tariffs.  A lull between blows is not the same thing as de-escalation or truce.  The next round of tariff increases is set for September 1.  Nevertheless, equities are higher following the 1.25% rise in the S&P 500...

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Semblance of Stability Re-Emerging

Overview:  The sell-off in equities seemed to peak yesterday, and US indices were narrowly mixed. Traders found comfort in that performance, even though the S&P 500 finished a little below 2800, and took the markets in the Asia-Pacific region higher, except in China, where the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5%.  Chinese shares saw the most foreign sales over the link with Hong Kong since the second connect was opened a couple of years ago.  The Nikkei led the Asian markets...

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Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

Overview:  The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling.  As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive.  The other key focus is US-Chinese trade.  The delay of the tariff escalation and the prospects for a deal helped lift equity markets yesterday, but profit-taking is cutting those gains today. ...

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The Week Ahead

After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two- thirds of the Q1 19.  Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline.   Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were.  The tightening of financial conditions, which was both cause and effect of heightened anxiety among investors, and spooked some central bank have eased considerably.  The volatility of stocks, bonds, and the dollar-yen and the...

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Dollar Bulls may Turn Cautious

While we expect that the broad economic and monetary divergence will allow the dollar's uptrend to resume, more immediately we have been expecting the recent ranges to remain intact.  The ranges may have frayed, but the pre-weekend price action may reinforce them. With a slow start to the week ahead (US holiday and light economic calendar), it may be difficult to rebuild the greenback's upside momentum.  It had tested the lower end of its ranges in late January and...

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Dollar Outlook: Almost There

The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week.  It also appreciated against most of the emerging market currencies, save two from Latam (Mexico and Peru) and two from Asia (Philippines and Malaysia).  The US January jobs report on February 1, coupled with disappointing European data and a less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia, helped the dollar recover from the lower end of its recent ranges.  The return of Chinese participants from the week-long Lunar New...

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Greenback Remains Firm

Overview: The US dollar is little firmer against most of the major currencies.  Despite some disappointing data (retail sales, trade, PMI), the Australian dollar has recovered from initial losses below $0.7200 on the back of the central bank's reluctance to adopt an easing bias.  A small upward revision in the eurozone's flash service and composite PMIs help steady the euro after it neared $1.14.  Most Asian markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year, but the Topix...

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