Saturday , July 20 2019
Home / Tag Archives: bull market

Tag Archives: bull market

Technically Speaking: Fed “Hopes” Spark Return Of Bullish Complacency

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I laid out the bull and bear case for the S&P 500 rising to 3300. In summary, the basic driver of the “bull market thesis” essentially boils down to Central Bank policy, as noted by the WSJ yesterday: “U.S. indices hit record highs last week on rate cut expectations. We’ve shifted from fiscal stimulus to monetary stimulus as the driver of the rally.” In other words, it is all about “rate cuts.” This reliance on the Fed has led to a marked rise in...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Monthly S&P 500 Chart Update & Review

With June now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are telling us now. Does the recent breakout to “all-time highs” mean the bull market is finally back? Or, is this breakout doomed to failure as the previous breakouts have been? That’s the answer we all want to know. Each week on RIA PRO we provide an update on all of the major markets for trading purposes. (See an unlocked version here. We also do the same analysis for each S&P...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: The Bull Is Back, Bonds Say “No”

For the fifth time, since the end of 2017. the market hit an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off.  Will this time be different? This was the question I asked last Tuesday: “Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the ‘Pavlovian’ response of a more ‘accommodative’ Federal Reserve which is expected to cut rates sharply by the end of this year. It is also the ‘hope’ there will be a resolution to the ongoing ‘trade war’ with...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Bull Market Or Bull Trap?

For the fourth time, since the end of 2017. the market has set an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off.  Will this time be different? Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the “Pavlovian” response of a more “accommodative” Federal Reserve which is expected to cut rates sharply by the end of this year. It is also the “hope” there will be a resolution to the ongoing “trade war” with China at the G-20 Summit next week.  Nowhere...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Volatility, Oil, Dollar, & Rates

Over the last three weeks, we have discussed the “sellable rally” in the markets. However, one of the more stunning movements in the market was in interest rates which have fallen sharply in recent months as “deflation” and “economic weakness” have become points of concern for the Federal Reserve. Just last year, the Federal Reserve was hiking rates with the expectations of stronger economic growth and rising inflationary pressures from a tight labor market. Almost a year later, the markets,...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: The “Sellable Rally” Chart Review

Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a “sellable rally” following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit: “This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term ‘sellable’ rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets only need some mildly positive news at this point to spur a ‘short-covering’ rally. I would encourage you to use it to reduce risk, rebalance holdings, and raise cash until the ‘trade war smoke’ clears. The market...

Read More »

Socialism Rises Due To The Great American Economic Growth Myth

There is little denying the rise of “socialistic” ideas in the U.S. today. You can try and cover the stench by calling it “social democracy” but in the end, it’s still socialism. Since 1775, millions of Americans have given their lives in defense of the American “idea.” The tyranny and oppression which arise from communism, socialism, and dictatorships have been a threat worthy of such sacrifice. I am sure those patriots who died to ensure the “American way of life” would be disheartened by...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: Tops Are Processes, Bottoms Are Events

In April of 2018, I posted an article laying out 10-reasons why the “bull market” had likely ended for a while. To wit: “I highly suggest you use any substantial rally to reduce risk and rebalance portfolios accordingly. Why? Because I am going to out on a limb and making a call.’I think the 9-year old bull market may have ended in February.’”  As I stated then: “In 2015, the market plunged as Fed Chair Janet Yellen brought QE3 to its conclusion and started hiking interest rates for the first...

Read More »