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Tag Archives: bull market

Consumers Are Keeping The US Out Of Recession? Don’t Count On It.

Just recently, Jeffry Bartash published an interesting article for MarketWatch. “Like a stiff tent pole, consumers are keeping the U.S. economy propped up. And it looks like they’ll have to do so for at least the next year. Strong consumer spending has given the economy a backbone to withstand spine-tingling political fights at home and abroad. Households boosted spending by 4.6% in the spring, and nearly 3% in the summer, to offset back-to-back drops in business investment and whispered talk...

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Corporate Profits Are Worse Than You Think

Corporate profits are worse than you think. In a recent post, I discussed the deviation of the stock market from corporate profitability. To wit: “If the economy is slowing down, revenue and corporate profit growth will decline also. However, it is this point which the ‘bulls’ should be paying attention to. Many are dismissing currently high valuations under the guise of ‘low interest rates,’ however, the one thing you should not dismiss, and cannot make an excuse for, is the massive...

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Technically Speaking: Everyone Is Swimming In The “Deep End.”

With the market breaking out to all-time highs, the media has started to once again reach for their party hats as headlines suggest clear sailing for investors ahead. After all, why not?   The Federal Reserve cut rates for the 3rd time this year. The Fed is also back in the “QE” game of buying bonds. President Trump has “surrendered” to China in order to end the “trade war.”  Corporate stock buybacks are on track for the second largest year on record. Earnings, due to buybacks, are beating...

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15-Extreme Risks & How You Can Navigate Them

Willis Towers Watson’s Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI) recently revealed what it considers the 15-extreme risks facing investors for 2019, as well as for the years ahead. The risks run the gamut from climate change to nuclear contamination. TAI’s research suggests, broadly, there are three hedging strategies available to institutions: Hold cash. Over long historical periods cash has held its real value through both episodes of deflation and inflation but there is no guarantee that this will...

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Dow 650,000? We Are Already There!

Just recently, CNBC ran an article touting the call of “Billionaire Investor Ron Baron” of the Dow reaching 650,000 in just 50-years. Billionaire investor Ron Baron sees the Dow at 650,000 in 50 years https://t.co/oPElm0nrHT — CNBC (@CNBC) October 25, 2019 As noted in the article: “Speaking from his annual investment conference in New York, Baron predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average, based on historical moves over decades, will reach 650,000 in 50 years, with an over $500 trillion...

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Technically Speaking: 4-Risks To The Bullish View

When I was growing up, my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of “wisdom” was: “A sure-fire ‘no lose’ proposition is doing exactly the opposite of whatever ‘no lose’ proposition is being proposed.” Of course, back then, he was mostly giving me “life advice” about not following along with my...

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Margin Debt Is Declining. Are The Bulls In The Clear?

In a recent weekly newsletter (Subscribe for free e-delivery), I discussed the rather dramatic decline of short-interest in the S&P 500 which suggests a high degree of complacency by investors. As Wolf Richter recently noted: “Of the total shares outstanding of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, only 2.6% were out on loan to short-sellers this week, the lowest since early October 2018, and down from 7% during the summer, according to IHS Markit data cited by Bloomberg. Meaning that short-sellers...

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Technically Speaking: It’s Crazy, But We’re Adding Equity Risk

In last week’s update, I discussed the case of why it was “now or never” for the bulls to take control of the market. To wit: The ECB announced more QE The Fed reduced capital requirements and initiated QE The Fed is cutting rates A “Brexit Deal” has been reached. Trump, as expected, caved into China Economic data is improving Stock buybacks If you are a bull, what is there not to love?  Despite a long laundry list of concerns, as stated, we remain equity biased in our portfolio models...

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CEO Confidence Plunges, Consumers Won’t Like What Happens Next

There is a disparity happening in the country. No, it isn’t political partisanship, but rather “economic confidence.” The latest release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey rose to a three-month high of 96, beat consensus expectations, and remains near record levels. Conversely, CEO confidence in the economy is near record lows. It’s an interesting dichotomy. The chart below shows our composite confidence index, which combines both the University of Michigan and...

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