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Tag Archives: Brexit

Greenback Remains Heavy

Overview: The equity rally appears undeterred by the rise in interest rates or the surge in oil prices.  Led by Tokyo and Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities advanced.  China, Taiwan, and Vietnam markets remain closed. After gapping higher yesterday and extending the gains in early turnover today, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating.  US shares are trading higher ahead of the re-opening after a long holiday weekend.  The US 10-year benchmark yield is near 1.24%, almost nine basis points...

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Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX

Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unable to sustain the gap higher opening to new record levels and reversed lower and fell to new three-lows.  The settlements were just inside Tuesday ranges, though the Dow Industrials set a record close. Yet, there was spillover to equity trading in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today.  Most of the large Asia Pacific markets, including Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan, were closed.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.35% in late...

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Players are Not Buying Everything Today

Overview:  The rally of US benchmarks to new record highs helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today, but the bulls are pausing in Europe, and there has been little follow-through buying of US shares.  Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia did not participate in today's regional advance led by a 2% rally in China's main indices. Most European markets are lower, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 may post its first loss of the month.  US shares are trading a bit lower.  The US 10-year note began...

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Markets Snap Back

Overview: Global equities are snapping back today, while the greenback retained the strength seen last week that was attributed to safe-haven flows.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day decline led by Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx is up around 1.1% after losing a little more than 3% last week.  US shares are trading higher as well. Benchmark 10-year yields are firm, with the US near 1.07%.  Yields in Europe are softer, with peripheral...

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Brexit: Wheels Coming Off

We’ve been quiet about Brexit because so many things have been happening on other fronts, and truth be told, because reporting has been thin. That isn’t necessarily due to a lack of newsworthy developments but that getting a good picture would involve things like interviewing haulers and farmers or at least their trade associations, and that means developing new sources, which equals work. But even adverse outcomes for the City are getting surprisingly little notice. Some of that may be...

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2021 Will Be Volatile

Yves here. Even though Richard Murphy’s look at 2021 is UK-oriented, a lot of his observations apply to the US. If anything, the breakdown in health care has the potential to be even more severe than what is underway at the NHS. See the new ProPublica story, “Those of Us Who Don’t Die Are Going to Quit.” It’s about the VA, but you have similar scenes underway at under-resourced hospitals in high Covid areas. The US, unlike the UK, is facing an eviction wave that is set to increase...

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Quick Notes on the Brexit Deal

Because it is Christmas Day, and I’d really rather not spill a lot of ink on the Brexit deal at this particular moment, plus we don’t really know much about what is inside the package yet, I hope you don’t mind just a few comments now. This is still a very thin deal that only reduces Brexit dislocations. The UK gets a hard Brexit rather than a crash-out. On trade, the big gain is not having tariffs or quotas. However, that does not eliminate the need for new documentation at the border, and...

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Cautious Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: Investors have turned cautious ahead of the weekend.  The US dollar is firmer, stocks are struggling, bond yields are higher, and gold and oil are consolidating.  Profit-taking was seen in Asia Pacific equities, and even New Zealand, which reported its trade deficit flipped to a surplus in November, was unable to resist the profit-taking.  It and the Australian market fell by more than 1%.  Still, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended its advance for the seventh consecutive week. ...

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Brexit: End of the Line

[embedded content] Even with the EU repeatedly giving the UK more time to consummate a trade deal, the Brexit lock is ticking and December 31 is approaching. The EU has set yet another drop dead date for considering a deal. This one might really be the last, particularly since there have been no leaks about fudges, which would also have to be negotiated agreed by both sides, even if the approval process were simpler. As we’ll discuss shortly, Johnson has introduced a new issue at the 11th...

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Greenback Slides Ahead of FOMC as Optimism Underpins Risk Appetites

Overview:  The S&P 500 snapped a four-day downdraft helped by optimism over the progress toward fiscal stimulus and some hope that a new trade deal can still be negotiated between the UK and EU.  Europe reported better than expected PMIs.  Equities are broadly higher, as are interest rates, while the dollar slumps.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time this week, while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up for the third session and at a new 10-month high.  US stocks are...

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