Wednesday , October 16 2019
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Tag Archives: Brexit

Brexit Market Rockin’

The PredictIt market on a Brexit by November 1st is up over 50 percent in the past 24 hours. The Rules Prior to 12:00:01 a.m. November 1, 2019 London time, the United Kingdom shall exit the European Union. – PredictIt Driven by a tape with the following headlines, this one from the WSJ. Still, the market is only pricing around a 30 percent probability of an October 31 Brexit, which may be due to the potential for a temporary extension of the deadline to conclude negotiations. We don’t...

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Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated

Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a rate cut before the end of the year.  Japan returned from holiday, and the Nikkei gapped higher, and its nearly 1.9% advance led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index higher. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is...

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Optimism Took the Weekend Off

Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning. US shares are trading slightly heavier, and the gap in the S&P 500 created by last Friday's...

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Brexit: The Ticking Clock

This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1696 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page, which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we’re doing this fundraiser and what we’ve accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, more original reporting.. As most UK and Irish readers have likely read by now, things...

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Brexit Market Plummets – “The Clock Is Ticking”

After negotiations in Brussels failed to produce a  breakthrough, the odds at PredictIt of an official Brexit by November 1 tanked into the teens on big volume.  The market was only pricing around a 30 percent probability of a deal by October 31,  however. Here’s some commentary by the FT, Boris Johnson’s hopes of sealing a Brexit deal in time for a critical EU summit later this week were in jeopardy on Sunday evening after two days of intensive negotiations left Brussels baffled about...

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Same Three Drivers in the Week Ahead but Changing Tones

Three themes have dominated the investment climate:  US-China tensions, Brexit, and the policy response to the disinflationary forces.  None have been resolved, which contributes to the uncertainty for businesses, households, and investors.  However, the negativity that has prevailed is receding a little.  It begins with the most substantive progress on Brexit in months, but also entails a possible new tariff truce between the US and China. Indeed, we irreverently suggested that the...

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Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit. Reports suggest the demonstrators in Hong Kong are considering ending...

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Old Toryism, Risen from the Crypt

This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1481 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page, which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we’re doing this fundraiser and what we’ve accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, more original reporting. For those following Brexit’s twists and turns, there has been...

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Hope is Trying to Supplant Pessimism Today

Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was closed for a national holiday. Taiwan led the losses amid a sell-off in semiconductor stocks. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed as small early losses were reversed. US shares are...

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Not a Good Day for Negotiators

o Overview: The re-opening of Chinese markets after a long holiday did not produce the volatility that many expected. Chinese stocks alongside most Asia markets traded higher today, and the yuan advanced. After opening higher and extending its recent rally, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 turned down, even though Germany announced an unexpected gain in August industrial output. US shares are trading a bit lower. Benchmark 10-year bonds are little changed. The dollar is mostly softer. Among...

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