Saturday , September 25 2021
Home / Tag Archives: bonds

Tag Archives: bonds

Finally The Taper Tantrum, Or What’s Wrong With August?

If you’re fortunate to be able to do this long enough, you’re absolutely assured to get caught with your pants down and almost certainly more than once. In the short run, it’s all a crapshoot anyway. Markets fluctuate and never, ever go in a straight line. And just when you claim to be right on top, they yank the rug right out from under your conceit(s). I’ve spent the past few weeks, really months pointing out how Federal Reserve policymakers via their compliant media hasn’t been...

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 100, Part 2: For Our Hundredth, What Else Would It Be? INFLATION

100.2 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Consumer Prices ———Ep 100.2 Summary———Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They’re elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra...

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 100, Part 1: For Our Hundredth, What Else Would It Be? INFLATION

100.1 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Producer Prices ———Ep 100.1 Summary———Producer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They’re elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Producer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra...

Read More »

Since There Is No Tantrum, Can We Taper The Dots Instead?

So much easier to just change the target, to move the goalposts. Having failed for weeks to provoke any “tantrum” to the Federal Reserve’s oncoming taper, even before today’s FOMC meeting all attention was instead simply shuffled off tapering QE and onto rate hikes. Bring the dots back! Anything to keep up the idea the Fed is a central bank in control of money stuff.A single dot maybe two get moved and we’re told to consider this terrific optimism and terrible hawkishness (if you are...

Read More »

Hey Jay, Maybe Check The Swaps Before Committing to Taper

It was said to be something hugely significant, truly momentous – but only until it started to misbehave all over again. This was the summer of 2013, SHIBOR Summer in China and the misunderstood, mislabeled “taper tantrum” in the US$. Consistent with the latter’s more optimistic take on the world, the 30-year swap spread turned positive for the first time since the worst of the 2008 crash.Ever since it first appeared late in 2008, a negative then persistently negative swap spread...

Read More »

Previewing The Taper Theater

Eurodollar, not Evergrande. That wasn’t just the point of yesterday’s recall, it is the whole point of beyond fourteen years of going only the wrong way. The deflationary way. Defaults in China are nowadays a commonplace part of that trend, one which began early in 2014 with Shanghai Chaori Solar.What was significant about Chaori was this: “It was the moment when the eurodollar finally caught up to China.” You can literally see it. The problem is despite the deficiency being just this...

Read More »

Talking To Bill About Evergrande

The US Treasury auctioned off $45 billion in 3-month (13w) bills this morning. Despite the Federal Reserve paying 5 bps for SOMA UST collateralized, for “some” reason the primary market’s players wanted this issue far more. The auction’s high was just 3.5 bps, its median 2.5. These are down from 4 bps and 3.5 bps, respectively, last Monday. With the world on edge over China’s Evergrande, it has more than a few people talking about prospects for dreaded contagion. The generic honorific...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Time For A Taper Tantrum?

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to say that it is talking about maybe reducing bond purchases sometime later this year or maybe next year or at least, someday. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at which he’ll tell us that markets have nothing to worry about because even if they taper QE, interest rates aren’t going up for a long, long time. That statement might have more credibility if the Fed had been right about just about anything over the last decade....

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 99, Part 3: When Everyone Understands Why The Dollar Goes Up, We Celebrate Our Show’s Demise

99.3 US Dollar Gains Value – Bad News for the World  ———Ep 99.3 Summary———In 1971, US Treasury Secretary John Connally told a group of European finance ministers that the US dollar “is our currency, but your problem.” Half a century later, the problem has grown bigger encompassing the whole world. A world that is short of dollars. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra...

Read More »

Dollar Warning Update From The Islands Which Started It

The first seeds of the eventual eurodollar bloom, in domestic US terms, were sown all way back in sixteen – as in the year 1916. Believe it or not, the Federal Reserve Act, then only a few years old, had been modified so that banking syndicates (those able to raise the princely sum of $1 million capital) could form what were called agreement corporations.What was the agreement? Like the arrangement in London many years later which would make the eurodollar into all it could be (and then...

Read More »