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Tag Archives: bonds

We Shouldn’t Have To Be Busting The Flood Myth For A Second Time, And Now We’re Really Going To Pay Prices

It’s now more than two months out from GFC2 and more importantly the Fed’s response to it. Why is Jay Powell’s reaction more important? Simple. Because it outlines what happens next. Had the FOMC been anywhere close to successful in anything other than convincing the media, GFC2 might’ve been a singular instance of disruption related to the non-economic shock of COVID-19.Instead, yet again, the central bank clearly demonstrated it isn’t central to the monetary system and therefore has very...

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What Flood?

Another 2.1 million Americans have filed this week with their state governments in order to determine their eligibility for unemployment insurance. That brings the 10-week disaster total for these initial jobless claims to an enormous 40.8 million. How did it get to be so many, and why, as states are opening back up, is it continuing in the millions all the way through the month of May?This is not simply a case of disease and the panicked government response to really, really bad virus...

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The *Optimists* Have Some Terrible News For the ‘V’

It has to be a combination of confirmation bias and rationalizations. Not even the official story finishes up with the fairy tale ending. The “V” people seem to be ignoring what the most optimistic group is actually saying. And these optimists absolutely want it to be that way.It bears repeating the “V” case; that once the non-economic shutdowns are lifted, vaccine or not, the world goes right back to work as if nothing happened. No lingering damage, not even the slightest hint of long run...

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Beware of Accepted Wisdom

Most everyone has heard of the Chinese proverb – or curse – that wishes one to live in “interesting times”. You’ve probably also heard that in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two symbols, one that denotes “danger” and another that means “opportunity”. Well we certainly live in interesting times and there is indeed a crisis. We won’t know if it was an opportunity until sometime in the future but if the stock market is any indication there are certainly a lot of folks who see it that...

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So Much Bond Bull

Count me among the bond vigilantes. On the issue of supply I yield (pun intended) to no one. The US government is the brokest entity humanity has ever conceived – and that was before March 2020. There will be a time, if nothing is done, where this will matter a great deal.That time isn’t today nor is it tomorrow or anytime soon because it’s the demand side which is so confusing and misdirected. Realizing this is true does not cancel your vigilantism. For two years now we’ve heard about how...

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No Flight To Recognize Shortage

If there’s been one small measure of progress, and a needed one, it has been the mainstream finally pushing commentary into the right category. Back in ’08, during the worst of GFC1 you’d hear it all described as “flight to safety.” That, however, didn’t correctly connote the real nature of what was behind the global economy’s dramatic wreckage. Flight to safety, whether Treasuries or dollars, wasn’t it.Back in March, while “it” was very obvious, even the New York Times put it the right way...

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The Reason For So Many Lies: He Finally Realizes He’s In Way Over His Head

This is not a man who’s comfortable thrust into a position of leadership. Say what you want about Ben Bernanke, and there’s a lot that still needs to be said, he at least carried on with the arrogance through thick and thin (almost entirely the latter). Jay Powell sounds like a boxer who just realized the lightweight he thought he was fighting put on 75 lbs of muscle and has been practicing by sparring with world champs.So, when he still says he’ll be the champ the words instead come out of...

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Stocks Haven’t Been Moneyed

Why didn’t 1987 turn out to be 1929 redux? Alan Greenspan was deathly afraid this would be the case, and in turn he made everyone else unnecessarily upset along the same lines. Especially Congress. The fact that both stock market crashes occurred during the month of October, though, actually ends the similarities. That plus clueless Federal Reserve officials.Why the one was and the other wasn’t is a matter of money; thus, the confused personnel of the central bank. If there’s one thing...

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