Monday , October 14 2019
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Tag Archives: BLS

GDP Estimates Collapse After Dismal ISM Report

GDPNow and other GDP estimates took a dive today on weaker than expected manufacturing reports. The GDPNow forecast for third-quarter GDP fell to 1.8% today on weak economic reports. Gold and Treasuries Rally GDP Estimates Q3 GDP growth estimate changes on FridayMorgan Stanley ⬇️ from 2.1% to 1.5%Macro Economic Advisors ⬇️ from2.2% to 1.6%NY Fed ⬇️ from 2.24% to 2.04%Atlanta Fed ⬆️ from 1.9% to 2.1%— UPFINA (@UPFINAcom) October 1, 2019Oxford Estimate Real Final Sales The...

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Currency War: Rising Dollar & Trump’s Retaliation

The ECB cut rates further into negative territory and the BoJ is expected to do the same. How long before Trump reacts? Japan Poised to Escalate Currency War A Bank of Japan board member says risks risks are growing and the BOJ Ready to Ease Again if Price Momentum Lost. “My recent concern is that, amid significant downside risks concerning overseas economies, negative effects would be exerted on prices,” Takako Masai said in a speech to business leaders in Tsu, Mie Prefecture,...

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Since 2000 Wage Growth Has Barely Grown, If You Even Got That Much

Women are slowly catching up to men in median wages but growth has been pathetic across the board. BLS data on real wages shows women are slowly catching up to men. That’s the good news. The bad news is real wages for women have only risen at slightly over 1/2 of 1 percent per year for 19.5 years. Men performed even worse. Real wages for men have risen at a pathetic rate of about 1/4 of 1 percent per year in the same period. The featured images is from a set of Interactive BLS...

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QE Debate: Powell’s Comment On “Resuming Balance Sheet Growth”

Some interpreted Powell’s statement to mean more QE. There’s a strong clue Powell meant something else. OK, but …. What did Powell Mean? Reminder: it is normal for the Fed's balance sheet to grow gradually. This is what he means. Not resumption of QE, as some have assumed. https://t.co/vUC3peXwrz— (((Frances Coppola))) (@Frances_Coppola) September 18, 2019I confess, I thought Powell was talking about QE, but I did not see the exact quote. Powell said “organic growth”. I believe...

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Job Report: Badly Misses Estimates As Economy Slows

The jobs report dramatically missed expectations today, especially with private jobs. ​Initial Reaction – Huge Misses The Econoday consensus was for a payroll expansion of 163,000 jobs, 150,000 of them private. The ADP forecast was 195,000 jobs.ADP missed consensus by 65,000 jobs.Econoday missed consensus by 33,000 jobs.Econonday missed the private consensus by 54,000 jobs.The Econoday lowest estimate missed the private consensus by 40,000 jobs.A 34,000 surge in government jobs was...

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Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the one rate cut, maybe a second one coming up, because the US economy while not as robust as last year is still very strong underneath everything else. This mainstream view is predicated on only one...

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Did The BLS Just Find The Landmine? One-Fifth Of Previously Estimated Payroll Gains May Not Have Existed

The entire basis for what the Fed is now calling a “mid-cycle” adjustment rests upon a specific view of the labor market. There was weakness in consumer spending, there remains weakness in business investment, but none of these cross currents or headwinds are going to matter. Americans are experiencing robust employment conditions which when these reassert themselves will cycle the economy through nothing more than a minor rough spot. This is the mainstream baseline. The one rate cut was just...

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Making Sense Of 100-Year Bonds At 0% & 30-Year Bonds At Negative Yields

Over 50% of European gov’t bonds have a negative yield. Globally there’s $15 trillion in negative-yield debt. $15 Trillion in Negative-Yield Debt Excluding the US 44% of Bonds Have a Negative Yield European Negative Yield Government Bonds As of mid-June, over 50% of European government bonds have a negative yield. The total is higher now. Negative-Yield 30-Year Bond Yesterday, Germany issued a 30-year bond yielding less than 0%. Held to maturity you will not even get your...

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No Recession In Sight? But Cutting Rates To Avoid One

President Trump and his economic advisor Larry Kudlow have important announcements. I can help with translations. Please consider Trump ‘Not Ready’ for China Trade Deal, Dismisses Recession Fears. Consumers Doing Well Trump: “We’re doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money.”Trump Translated: The “tremendous tax” cut primarily benefited the wealthy. Consumers are tapped out. That’s why housing and autos are on the...

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Fed Trapped In a Rate-Cutting Box: It’s The Debt Stupid

The Fed desperately needs to keep credit expanding or the economy will collapse. However, it’s an unsustainable scheme. Key Debt Points In 1984 it took $1 of additional debt to create an additional $1 of Real GDP.As of the fourth quarter of 2018, it took $3.8 dollars to create $1 of real GDP.As of 2013, it took more than a dollar of public debt to create a dollar of GDP.If interest rates were 3.0%, interest on total credit market debt would be a whopping $2.16 trillion per year. That...

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