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Tag Archives: BLS

What Did Everyone Think Was Going To Happen?

Honestly, what did everyone think was going to happen? I know, I’ve seen the analyst estimates. They were talking like another six or seven perhaps eight million job losses on top of the twenty-plus already gone. Instead, the payroll report (Establishment Survey) blew everything away, coming in both at two and a half million but also sporting a plus sign.The Household Survey was even better, +3.8mm during May 2020. But, again, why wasn’t this expected? All this payroll report confirms is...

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Serious Bending Of The “V”

Is it already priced in? Depends, of course, on who you ask and more importantly which market is carrying out the presumed discounting. Stocks surged on the idea that though this is epic in its misery we’re already getting past the worst. Short run disruption, a big one, but nothing more. It’s almost preprogrammed at this point: the data for April is going to be the worst of it. That’s when the heaviest part of the disruption struck, where the condition was at its apex and totality. The...

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Shedlock: Recession Will Be Deeper Than The Great Financial Crisis

Economists at IHS Markit downgraded their economic forecast to a deep recession. Please consider COVID-19 Recession to be Deeper Than That of 2008-2009 Our interim global forecast is the second prepared in March and is much more pessimistic than our 17 March regularly scheduled outlook. It is based on major downgrades to forecasts of the US economy and oil prices. The risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside and further downgrades are almost assured.IHS Markit now believes the...

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Shedlock: Fed Trying To Save The Bond Market As Unemployment Explodes

Bond market volatility remains a sight to behold, even at the low end of the curve. Bond Market Dislocations Remain The yield on a 3-month T-Bill fell to 1.3 basis points then surged to 16.8 basis points in a matter of hours. The yield then quickly crashed to 3 basis points and now sits at 5.1 basis points. The Fed is struggling even with the low end of the Treasury curve. $IRX 3-Month Yield Stockcharts shows the 3-month yield ($IRX) dipping below zero but Investing.Com does...

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Shedlock: Supply And Demand Shocks Coming Up

Dual economic shocks are underway simultaneously. There are shortages of some things and lack of demand for others. Rare Supply-Demand Shocks Bloomberg has an excellent article on how the Global Economy Is Gripped by Rare Twin Supply-Demand Shock. The coronavirus is delivering a one-two punch to the world economy, laying it low for months to come and forcing investors to reprice equities and bonds to account for lower company earnings.From one side, the epidemic is hammering the...

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PayLOLs 2020: 2 for 2

It’s about time. I’ve been writing for years that the payroll reports are, mostly, irrelevant. That’s never how they are received, though, some months wherein the new low for the unemployment rate or the blowout headline payroll figure send risk markets soaring. Not this month. Can you imagine what the last couple of reports would have done a year ago? According to the BLS, get this, the labor market hasn’t been this good since 2015! By their Establishment Survey numbers, we’re talking...

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PayLOLs

President Trump mentioned the unemployment rate seven times during his third State of the Union address delivered on Tuesday. It was obvious why he did (though I had expected twice that number). His reelection largely stands on where enough people believe the economy stands. He was, after all, elected four years ago to fix what had been a very real economic mess. Has he fixed it? That’s the question and it is not a partisan issue. The unemployment rate is, however, and it was made one...

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Dallas Fed President Sees “No Move” In Fed Funds Rate

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan made some interesting comments today on interest rates, repos, and the coronavirus. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was on panel discussion today at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business on the “2020 Business Outlook: Real Estate and the Texas Economy” in Austin, Texas. Bloomberg Econoday Synopsis Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is neutral right now on monetary policy, saying neither a rate cut nor a rate hike are necessary in...

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Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?

David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice outside of a recession.” Here is the chart he presented. Fixed Investment, Imports, Government Share of GDP Since 1980 there have been five recessions in the U.S.and only once, after the dotcom bust in 2001, was there a recession...

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized Establishment Survey queries establishments...

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