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Tag Archives: Black Swan

30/4/20: No, Healthcare Systems are Not Lean Startups, Mr. Musk

A tweet from @elonmusk yesterday has prompted a brief response from myself: https://twitter.com/GTCost/status/1255681426445365248?s=20 For two reasons, as follows, it is worth elaborating on my argument a little more:I have seen similar sentiment toward authorities' over-providing healthcare system capacity in other countries as well, including, for example in Ireland, where the public has raised some concerns with the State contracting private hospitals for surplus capacity; and Quite a...

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A Black Swan In The Ointment

“A good person is as rare as a black swan”- Decimus Juvenal In 2007, Nassim Taleb wrote a bestselling and highly impactful book titled The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The book uses the analogy of a black swan to describe negative events that appear to be very rare and occur without warning.  Since the book was published, the term black swan has been overused to describe all kinds of events that were predictable to some degree.  Last April, we wrote A Fly in the...

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25/2/2020: No, 2019-nCov did not push forward PE ratios to 2002 levels

Markets are having a conniption these days and coronavirus is all the rage in the news flow.  Here is the 5 days chart for the major indices: And it sure does look like a massive selloff.Still, hysteria aside, no one is considering the simple fact: the markets have been so irrationally priced for months now, that even with the earnings being superficially inflated on per share basis by the years of rampant buybacks and non-GAAP artistry, the PE ratios are screaming 'bubble' from any...

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14/2/20: Pandemics, Panics and the Markets

In my recent article for The Currency I wrote about the expected market effects of the 2019-nCov coronavirus outbreak: https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/8490/constantin-gurdgiev-pandemics-panics-and-the-markets. While past pandemics are not a direct nor linear indicators of the future expected performance, the logic and the dynamics of the past events suggest that while the front end short term effects of pandemics on the economies and the markets can be significant, over time,...

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Hmmmm…

I’m focused on the picture in the People’s Daily tweet.  Are those what I think they are? China has been keeping its promises to uphold environmental protection since the first global commitment in 1972. Over 40 years gone by since then and the nation’s promises remain as solid as ever. #ReformOpeningUp40thAnniv https://t.co/2oBcZJVHXF pic.twitter.com/9X1bxtsZkd — People's Daily, China (@PDChina) January 11, 2019

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The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict "black swan" events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura's Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition that is impossible. "However, its close cousin the grey swan can be foreseen. These are the unlikely but impactful events that,...

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The ‘End Of Dreams’ And The Saving Of Appearances

Authord by Alastair Crooke via The Automatic Earth blog, Robert Kagan first called attention to the fact that America would need to awake from its ‘dream’ a decade ago in End of Dreams: The Return of History, and would have to manage the rise of ‘other’ powers, (some greater than others), with adroitness, if it were to avoid a bad road-crash as emerging competitors clashed with the waning dominant power.   This meant that the US no longer would be able to assert...

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Bubble Dynamics and Market Crashes

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, To paraphrase one of the great gems of Wall Street wisdom, “Nothing infuriates a man more than the sight of other people making money.” That’s a pretty good description of what happens during the late stage of a stock market bubble. The bubble participants are making money (at least on a mark-to-market basis) every day. Meanwhile, the more patient, prudent investor is stuck on the sidelines - allocated to cash or low-risk...

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Stockman Exposes “The Black Swan In Plain Sight” – Debt Out The Wazoo

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The black swan in plain sight does emit the Donald's orangish glow, but at the end of the day its true color is actually red. That is, monumental towers of rapidly rising debt loom everywhere on the planet. For the moment, the artificial cash flow from this unsustainable borrowing spree is keeping a simulacrum of growth and prosperity alive. Yet this whole outbreak of debt...

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Taleb Explains How He Made Millions On Black Monday As Others Crashed

Former trader and author of best-selling book “The Black Swan” sat down for an interview with Bloomberg News to mark the upcoming thirtieth anniversary of the stock-market crash that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987 – otherwise known as Black Monday. Taleb famously supercharged his career – and earned a considerable sum of money (though turns out it was less than Taleb felt he deserved) – thanks to his trading profits from that day, which he said were in the “tens...

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