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Tag Archives: bear

Seth Levine: COVID-19 Is Not The Last War

These are truly remarkable times in the investment markets. The speed, intensity, and ubiquity of this selloff brings just one word to mind: violence. It would be remarkable if it wasn’t so destructive. Sadly, the reactions from our politicians and the public were predictable. The Federal Reserve (Fed) faithfully and forcefully responded. Despite its unprecedented actions, it seems like they’re “fighting the last war.” Caveat Emptor My intention here is to discuss some observations from the...

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Technically Speaking: Risk Limits Hit, When Too Little Is Too Much

For the last several months, we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market. While such comments are often mistaken for “being bearish,” we have often stated it is our process of managing “risk” which is most important. Beginning in mid-January, we began taking profits out of our portfolios and reducing risk. To wit: “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.” Importantly, we did...

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Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

“Tops are a process, and bottoms are an event” Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues that plagued the underbelly of the financial markets. The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults. Earnings estimates for 2019 fell sharply, and 2020 estimates are now on the decline. Stock market targets for 2020 are still too high, along with 2021. Rising geopolitical tensions between Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, etc.  The effect of the tax...

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Technically Speaking: Sellable Rally, Or The Return Of The Bull?

Typically, “Technically Speaking,” is an analysis of Monday’s market action, and the relevant risk/reward dynamics for investors. However, this week, we need to update the strategy we lain out in this past weekend’s newsletter, “Market Crash & Navigating What Happens Next.” Specifically, we broke down the market into three specific time frames looking at the short, intermediate, and long-term technical backdrop of the markets. In that analysis, our premise was a “reflexive bounce” in the...

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Seth Levine: Commoditizing My Framework For A New Paradigm

When it comes to investing it’s never different this time; nor, however, is it ever the same. This difficult-to-navigate paradox creates a scarcity of longevity. Today’s persistently low yield environment has upped the ante and put many marquis names out of business. To be fair, alpha’s been elusive of late. It’s not that anyone suddenly became dumb. Rather, traditional methodologies are less robust today. Perhaps adopting a commodity framework can help generate returns in these investment...

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Seth Levine: The Unsurprising Repo Surprise

Have you heard? There’s trouble in the repo markets. Even casual investment market participants probably know that something’s amiss. While only a handful of investors participate in repo, this obscure corner of the investment markets rests at the epicenter of the financial system—hence all the attention. The turmoil caught many by surprise, prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) into emergency action. However, the real surprise is, in my opinion, why this took any of us by surprise to begin...

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Mauldin: The Fed Has Quietly Started QE4

In September of last year, something still unexplained happened in the “repo” short-term financing market. Liquidity dried up, interest rates spiked, and the Fed stepped in to save the day. Story over? No. The Fed has had to keep saving the day, every day, since then. We Hear Different Theories The most frightening one is that the repo market itself is actually fine, but a bank is wobbly and the billions in daily liquidity are preventing its collapse. Who might it be? I have been told, by...

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Patrick Watson: Where Is The World Going & How We Got Here

We all want to know the future. Unfortunately, the future isn’t talking. It’s just coming, like it or not. We can, however, make educated forecasts. I think John Mauldin is broadly correct: the future is bright, but we’ll go through darkness first. In fact, many of us are already in pretty dark situations, “left behind” in a supposedly thriving economy. We’re told there is no inflation even as the real cost of living rises ever higher. Where is it leading us? To answer that, we have to think...

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After 20-Years Of Trading: You Learn You Know Nothing

You ever notice— That some memories tend to be stronger than others? What sort of things do you remember? You remember events in your life that had a lot of feelings associated with them. You remember the death of your pet like it was yesterday. All the nights spent sitting on the couch watching Wheel Of Fortune—it’s just a blur. Researchers have studied this in rats. They found that rats remembered things better if they experienced a rush of adrenaline. In those moments with strong memories,...

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The Real Investment Guide For The Next Decade

Written by Lance Roberts, Michael Lebowitz, CFA and John Coumarianos, M.S. of Real Investment Advice As we head into the next decade, this complete set of articles delves into the fallacies of always owning stocks for the long run (aka “buy and hold” and passive strategies). Given that market’s cycle over time, it is important to understand how markets, and investing actually work, the impact on your wealth, and what you can do about it. This series of articles will cover the following key...

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