Thursday , October 17 2019
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Tag Archives: Bear Market

Technically Speaking: Bulls Get QE & Trade, Remain “Stuck In The Middle”

“Clowns to the left of me,Jokers to the right, here I am,Stuck in the middle with you” – Stealers Wheels __________________________ The lyrics seem apropos considering we have Trump, China, Mnuchin, the Fed, along with a whole cast of colorful characters making managing money a difficult prospect recently.  However, the good news is that over the last month, the bulls have had their wish list fulfilled. The ECB announces more QE and reduces capital constraints on foreign banks. The Fed...

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How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Very little to the upside.  Very much to the downside. Macro Valuation Metrics Lots of incoming over our S&P Shooting Star post, most of which can mostly be summed up to the effect, “Why so bearish?” Seriously?   Our predisposition to the market is always anchored in time tested valuation metrics, which are hard to manipulate.  That is why we like market capitalization deflated by some macro variables, such as nominal GDP or wages. Micro measures, such as Price-to-Earnings are way...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 10-07-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week So the Fed's "mid-cycle adjustment" now includes at least two 25bps rate cuts (and probably...

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Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts & The Reason To Focus On Risk

Since the lows of last December, the markets have climbed ignoring weakening economic growth, deteriorating earnings, weak revenue growth, and historically high valuations on “hopes” that more “Fed rate cuts” and “QE” will keep this current bull market, and economy, alive…indefinitely. This is at least what much of the media suggests as noted recently by Rex Nutting via MarketWatch: “‘Recessions are always hard to predict,’ says Lou Crandall, chief economist for Wrightson ICAP, who’s been...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-30-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week Services sector slowing, employment weakening, and manufacturing struggling. The gig is up if...

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Technically Speaking: The Risk To The Bullish View Of Trade Deal

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the bullish view of a trade deal with China.  “Assuming we are correct, and Trump does indeed ‘cave’ into China in mid-October to get a ‘small deal’ done, what does this mean for the market.  The most obvious impact, assuming all ‘tariffs’ are removed, would be a psychological ‘pop’ to the markets which, given that markets are already hovering near all-time highs, would suggest a rally into the end of the year.”  This is not the first time we...

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Earnings Season & The Truth About Wall Street Analysis

Earnings results for the third quarter is fast approaching, and investors are getting excited for the “beat the estimate” game where Wall Street continually lowers estimates so companies can beat them. As I noted previously: One of the reasons given for the push to new highs was the ‘better than expected’ earnings reports coming in. As noted by FactSet:  “78% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate…The percentage of companies reporting EPS above the mean EPS estimate is above the...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-23-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Interview With Loren Steffy On George P. Mitchell; “The Father Of Fracking.” Our Best Tweets Of The Week Peter Fisher-...

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Technically Speaking: How To Safely Navigate A Late Stage Bull Market

In this past weekends newsletter, I discussed the issues surrounding “dollar cost averaging” and “buy and hold” investing. That discussion always raises some debate because there is so much pablum printed in the mainstream media about it. As we discussed: “Yes, a ‘buy and hold’ portfolio will grow in the financial markets over time, but it DOES  NOT compound. Read this carefully: “Compound returns assume no principal loss, ever.” To visualize the importance of this statement, look at the...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-20-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week Our Latest Newsletter What You Missed At RIA Pro RIA Pro is our premium investment...

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