Friday , January 24 2020
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Tag Archives: Bear Market

Yes, Rates Are Still Going To Zero

“If the U.S. economy entered a recession soon and interest rates fell in line with levels seen during the moderate recessions of 1990 and 2001, yields on even longer-dated Treasury securities could fall to or below zero.” – Senior Fed Economist, Michael Kiley – January 20, 2020 I was emailed this article no less than twenty times within a few hours of it hitting the press. Of course, this was not a surprise to us. To wit: “Outside of other events such as the S&L Crisis, Asian Contagion,...

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Technically Speaking: Extreme Deviations & Eventual Outcomes

The good news is that with the market closed yesterday, the extreme extensions of the market did not get any more extreme. Also, it doesn’t change our analysis much from this past weekend’s missive either: “This week, the market pushed those deviations even further as the S&P 500 has now pushed into 3-standard deviation territory above the 200-WEEK moving average.” “There have only been a few points over the last 25-years where such deviations from the long-term mean were prevalent. In...

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Eric Hickman: Recession Is More Likely Than You Think

Eric Hickman is president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc., an advisory firm located in Denver, Colorado specializing in U.S. Treasury bonds. Good economic news over the last couple months belies the fact that a recession could strike as soon as March 2020. That good news has been plentiful: a phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China is presumably close to being signed, the December U.S. Labor jobs report exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve didn’t lower rates at their...

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MacroView: 2020 Market & Investment Outlook

On Tuesday, Michael Lebowitz and I held private events with our high net worth clients to review our investment strategy and outlook for the rest of the year. The purpose of these events was to provide clarity on portfolio allocation, weightings,  and the risks that could potentially lead to large losses of capital. As we noted in last weekend’s newsletter, we recently took profits in our various portfolio strategies to raise cash slightly, and reduce excess portfolio risk. Given our...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-13-20

We know you get busy and don’t check our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show Video Of The Week Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss how the Federal Reserve has gotten itself trapped in its own liquidity program. Our...

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The Fed Won’t Avert The Next “Crisis,” They Will Cause It.

John Mauldin recently penned an interesting piece: “Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. In the developed world, and especially the US, and even in China, our economic challenges are rapidly approaching that point. Things that would have been easily fixed a decade ago, or even five years ago, will soon be unsolvable by conventional means. Yes, we did indeed need the Federal Reserve to...

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Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.  In the Equity Portfolios, we reduced our weightings in some of our more extended holdings such as Apple (AAPL,) Microsoft (MSFT), United Healthcare...

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Comparison & The Role Your Advisor Should Play

A recent article on MarketWatch by Sanjib Saha caught my attention: “After taking the Series 65 exam last February, I set a goal for 2019: Help 10 friends and family members with their finances. Instead of giving specific investment advice, I wanted to educate them on money matters. I knew that they would benefit from one-on-one discussions, well-regarded books, educational videos and credible websites.” Think about that for a moment. Here is a young man, who grew up during the longest bull...

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MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself?

“Don’t fight the Fed” That’s how I started out last week’s “Macroview.” “That is the current mantra of the market as we begin 2020, and it certainly seems to be the right call. Over the last few months, the Federal Reserve has continued its ‘QE-Not QE’ operations, which has dramatically expanded its balance sheet. Many argue, rightly, the current monetary interventions by the Fed are technically ‘Not QE’ because they are purchasing Treasury Bills rather than longer-term Treasury Notes....

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 01-06-20

This past week was our annual family ski trip, which is why our postings have been lighter than normal this week. We will return next week back with our full schedule. In the meantime, we know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show...

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