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Tag Archives: Australian Outlook

Big Day for the Euro with ECB Lagarde and PMIs

Big Day for the Euro with ECB Lagarde and PMIs Daily FX Market Roundup November 21, 2019 Friday will be a big day for the euro. There’s a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde and November PMIs. Since Lagarde became the President of the central bank, she has not made any direct comments on monetary policy. However we know from prior talks that the ECB’s new leader is worried about the threat of nationalism along with the danger of global recession and like her predecessor feels...

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Big Problems for AUD

Big Problems for AUD Daily FX Market Roundup November 20, 2019 The US dollar rebounded against all of the major currencies on the back of less dovish FOMC minutes despite lower bond yields and the sell-off in stocks. The central bank cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time this year in October. The minutes explained the reasons for why back to back easing was necessary by highlighting global growth risks and trade uncertainty. However they made it clear that most policymakers...

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Risk Continues to Roll

Market Drivers November 19, 2019 RBA Minutes send Aussie tumbling but it recovers Risk on flows persist Nikkei -0.53% Dax 0.79% UST 10Y 1.82% Oil $57/bbl Gold $1467/oz BTCUSD $8199 Europe and Asia: AUD RBA Minutes North America: CAD Manufacturing Sales 8:30 FX was generally quiet in Asian and European session trade today with most of the pairs contained to narrow ranges as low volatility conditions persisted. In Australia, the release of the RBA minutes caused a flutter in Aussie as the...

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Dollar Slips Further on Trump Worries

Dollar Slips Further on Trump Worries Daily FX Market Roundup November 18, 2019 The US dollar started this new trading week on its back foot, weakening against all of the major currencies. In our note on Friday, we talked about the possibility of further losses for the greenback but we did not expect it to happen so quickly. Investors are worried about President Trump’s policies following reports that China is pessimistic about trade talks. The President also held a meeting with Fed...

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Dollar Ends Bruising Week – More Losses Ahead?

Dollar Ends Bruising Week – More Losses Ahead? Daily FX Market Roundup November 15, 2019 It has been a challenging week for the US dollar as the greenback sold off against most of the major currencies. Weaker US data combined with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s benign outlook for the US economy reinforced the market’s view that low rates will be here to stay. Trade talks also hit a snag this week and the ongoing uncertainty is taking its toll on currencies. Unless President Trump...

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Aussie Drops – Is Risk About to be Clobbered?

Market Drivers November 14, 2019 AU Labor data misses EU escapes recession Nikkei -0.76% Dax -0.23% UST 10Y 1.85% Oil $56/bbl Gold $1467/oz BTCUSD $8646 Europe and Asia: AUD AU Labor data -19K vs. 16K eyed GBP UK Retail Sales -0.1 vs. 0.2% EUR GE GDP 0.1% vs. -0.1% North America: USD PPI 8:30 The Australian dollar was the biggest mover in FX market overnight after labor data from Down Under missed badly suggesting that RBA will have to cut rates further in order to stabilize the...

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POWELL vs. RBNZ – What’s the Bigger Surprise?

POWELL vs. RBNZ – What’s the Bigger Surprise? Daily FX Market Roundup November 12, 2019 The best way to summarize President Trump’s speech to the NY Economics Club is that it could have been a lot worse for the markets. He threatened a significant increase in tariffs on China if there’s no deal but at the end of the day, nothing new was revealed. President Trump made no mention on how US-China trade talks are going and said nothing about rolling back tariffs. He also did not drop any...

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5 Biggest Risks for FX this Week

5 Biggest Risks for FX this Week Daily FX Market Roundup November 11, 2019 Monday was a slow start to a busy week for the currency market. The US bond market was closed for Veteran’s Day but the stock market was open allowing stocks to come record highs. Holiday profit taking was not the only reason for the market’s decline – the mood on trade turned sour again after President Trump said he hasn’t made a decision on tariff rollbacks. Over the weekend, his contradictory comments...

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Trump Denies Tariff Rollback, Triggers FX Pullback

Trump Denies Tariff Rollback, Triggers FX Pullback Daily FX Market Roundup November 8, 2019 After all of this week’s conflicting headlines, the only real truth is that President Trump isn’t ready to back down on his trade war with China. There’s no doubt that China wants the tariffs cancelled and on Thursday it seemed as if both sides want to include that in the phase one trade deal. However on Friday, Trump made it clear that nothing has been decided – he said that while China wants...

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USD/JPY Hits 5 Month Highs as US Confirms Tariff Rollbacks

USD/JPY Hits 5 Month Highs as US Confirms Tariff Rollbacks Daily FX Market Roundup November 7, 2019 The biggest driver of currency flows this week are US / China trade headlines. Early on the outlook was grim with talk of the phase one trade deal delayed to December. However sentiment shifted dramatically overnight after China’s Ministry said they agreed to lift tariffs as the deal progresses. Both countries want a Phase 1 deal on paper by the end of the week and the US confirmed that...

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