Monday , October 14 2019
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Tag Archives: AUD

Dollar Buying Pressure Subsides

Overview:  The Dollar Index's eight-day advance is in jeopardy. Although the greenback recorded new highs against some major currencies, the momentum appears to be stalling.  The news stream is constructive as a compromise seems to have been reached to avoid another US government shutdown, and there is some optimism that the US and China will strike a deal even if not by March 1.  Equities are moving higher.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended a four-day downdraft as the...

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Dollar Starts New Week on Firm Note

Overview:  Lifted by the re-opening of Chinese markets after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, global equities are trading firmer.  Outside of Japanese markets that were closed, the large markets in Asia--China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong advanced.  European bourses are following suit, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up more than three-quarters of a point through the morning session.  US shares are also trading higher.   Core benchmark 10-year yields are mostly...

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Dollar Outlook: Almost There

The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week.  It also appreciated against most of the emerging market currencies, save two from Latam (Mexico and Peru) and two from Asia (Philippines and Malaysia).  The US January jobs report on February 1, coupled with disappointing European data and a less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia, helped the dollar recover from the lower end of its recent ranges.  The return of Chinese participants from the week-long Lunar New...

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Dollar Index Seven-Day Advance is the Longest in Two Years

Overview:  As North American traders return to their posts to put the finishing touches on the week's activity, the Dollar Index is extending its advance for a seventh consecutive session.  If sustained, it will be the longest advance since February 2017.  The rally was sparked after the dovish FOMC statement had sent the greenback lower and the employment data raised the possibility that the Fed overreacted to the stock market volatility. The S&P 500 turned back from...

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Dollar’s Gains Extended

Overview:  The five-day advance of the S&P 500 stalled yesterday and global equities are mixed today.  Most Asian centers remain closed, Japan and some small markets were lower, while Taiwan, Australia, and India moved higher.  The seven-day rally in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is under threat today.  Australia and New Zealand bond yields fell, while European bonds are little changed, Italian bonds are underperforming, In the foreign exchange market, the dollar remains...

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Dollar Gains by Default

Overview: The rally in equities is threatening to pause today, even though the few markets open in Asia edged higher.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which has advanced in eight of the past ten sessions and six in a row, is seeing some profit-taking pressures.  US shares are also trading heavier in Europe.  The S&P 500 has a five-day rally in tow but looks poised for some backing and filling action.  Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower, with the notable exception...

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Greenback Remains Firm

Overview: The US dollar is little firmer against most of the major currencies.  Despite some disappointing data (retail sales, trade, PMI), the Australian dollar has recovered from initial losses below $0.7200 on the back of the central bank's reluctance to adopt an easing bias.  A small upward revision in the eurozone's flash service and composite PMIs help steady the euro after it neared $1.14.  Most Asian markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year, but the Topix...

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Subdued Start to Quiet Week

Overview:  The Lunar New Year celebration made for a quiet Asian session while a light diary in Europe saw subdued turnover.  Equity markets are narrowly mixed.  Among the three large markets open in Asia Pacific, Australia and Japanese equities rose while India slipped.  European bourses are little changed, putting the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 four-day advance at risk. Benchmark 10-year bond yields have edged up.  The dollar is firmer against most of the major and emerging...

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Is the Trend Your Friend or Fade the Break?

A basic but essential judgment short-term participants must make is whether a particular market is trending or rangebound.  It informs the technical tools one uses and the tactics one employs. Often one's timeframe shapes one's answer.  The dollar has either approached or gone through what previously seemed like the lower end of a range.  Recognizing that there is no substitute for disciplined risk management, on balance, we are more inclined to see the dollar ranges hold...

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The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase.    Investors had been concerned about what has become known as "quantitative tightening" or "QT".  It is the opposite of QE.  Collectively the central banks' balance sheets were no longer to be growing on a net basis....

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