Monday , October 14 2019
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Tag Archives: AUD

Can the Market Get more Dollar Negative?

The US dollar's technical tone remains poor and market psychology is nearly universally hostile toward it.  Many believe that US Administration is hostile to the international order and rule of law that previous Amerian administrations constructed and advanced.  The de-weaponization of the foreign exchange market one of the hallmarks over the past couple of decades may also be jettisoned.   When US Commerce Secretary Ross said that there are always trade wars, offered...

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Dollar Takes Another Leg Lower

North American session sold into the dollar's upticks and Asia followed suit, taking the greenback to new multi-year lows against the euro and sterling while pushing it below the JPY110 level for the first time since last September.  US trade action has become latest element of the narrative the seeks to explain the dollar's slide and the decoupling of the greenback from interest rates.   The euro reached a high in European turnover above $1.2350 and sterling pushed through...

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Dollar Stabilizes Near Recent Lows

The US dollar has come back better bid in late Asian activity. The session highlight was the BOJ meeting. BOJ maintained forecasts and policy. There was a small tweak to the inflation assessment, noting that prices were skewed to the downside, and said there was no change in inflation expectations. Last time it has said expectations were weakening.   It also reiterated that there was no policy implication to the bond operations.  The dollar bounce was capped in front of...

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Great Graphic: Is Aussie Cracking?

The Australian dollar bottomed in early December $0.7500 after having tested $0.8100 a couple of times in September.  Since early December, however, the Australian dollar appreciated by nearly 6.5%.  As it tested the $0.8000 area, the momentum faded.   Yesterday it managed to close above that threshold and new buying lifted it above yesterday's highs briefly in Asia earlier today.  However, there is a growing sense that the market has gone too far, and the 4% decline in...

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Dollar Remains Heavy

The US dollar closed last week on a firm note, but it has been unable to build on its gains to start the new week.  News that Germany's SPD agreed to enter formal negotiations with Merkel's CDU/CSU alliance saw the euro open in Asia around a half a cent higher.  However, sellers emerged near $1.2275 but seemed to lose their nerve as the pre-weekend low near $1.2215 was approached.   It requires a break of $1.2165 to be of technical importance.  On the upside, the market may...

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The Dollar’s Technical Condition Leaves it Vulnerable to ECB and BOJ

It seems as if Newton's first law of motion is being expressed in the foreign exchange market:  An object in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by a countervailing force.   All the major currencies continued to trade higher against the US dollar over the past several sessions.  The euro and sterling extended their weekly advance for a fifth consecutive week.  The Scandis have also appreciated for five weeks.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars have rallied for ...

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Dollar Crushed as Government Shutdown Looms

The US dollar is broadly lower as the momentum feeds on itself. Asia is leading the way. The Japanese yen, Taiwanese dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, and South Korean won are all around 0.45% higher.  Asian shares also managed to shrug off the weakness seen in the US yesterday.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%.  It is the sixth consecutive weekly gain.  The dollar's drop comes as US yields reach levels not  seen in more than a year.  The 10-year yield is at its...

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Currencies Consolidate After Chop Fest

The US dollar rallied in the North American afternoon yesterday and the timing coincided with the release of the Fed's Beige Book that saw several districts report wage and price pressures.  The US 10-year yield moved toward toward 2.60%,, and helped by speculation that as US companies repatriate earnings kept abroad that they may have to liquidate the investments, some of which are thought to be in Treasuries.    The greenback is trading with a modest downside bias...

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Dollar Bears Tighten Their Grip

The consolidation/correction in the US dollar that we anticipated on technical grounds was brief and shallow.  A series of developments seemed to play into the bear's hands.  The developments from the shift in how China sets the reference rate,  the wariness of some to expand its Treasury holdings, to less super-long bond buying by the BOJ and a more hawkish twist in the record of last month's ECB meeting all seemed to provide new grist to sell the greenback.  The UK...

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Capital Markets Calmer, Greenback Consolidates

As market participants were just getting their sea legs back after the start of the year, it was hit by a one-two punch of ideas that BOJ policy was turning less accommodative and that Chinese officials were wary of adding to their Treasury holdings.  Then late yesterday, a news wire reported that Canada suspected the US was going to withdraw from NAFTA.   Today, however, the markets have stabilized.  First, in today's operations, the BOJ maintained its purchases of...

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