Thursday , April 9 2020
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Tag Archives: Alhambra Research

SPECIAL REPORT: The Yield Curve And What It Means

The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming! Note: We first posted this research paper in August 2019, when the yield curve inverted for the first time in the current economic cycle. Well, it inverted once again yesterday, so… Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if you know what tactics you will employ when recession is imminent. And most importantly, not if you know what the yield curve and other...

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SPECIAL REPORT: Minding The Valuation Gap

Stocks are expensive. Really expensive. A wide gap has opened between the stock market and economic reality, and at some point, the gap between the two will close. Our Special Report on Market Valuations, Volume 4 in Jeff Snider’s “Follow The Money” series, will help you detail how it might look when it inevitably closes, and will counsel you on how to navigate your portfolio through turbulent times. Click here to download “Follow The Money: Don’t Fight The...

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SPECIAL REPORT: 2019 In Review

No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day.  Here’s what it said in 2019: Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required).   This report includes extensive, in-depth commentary by our President and CEO Joseph Calhoun, as well as a full review of major economic series...

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SPECIAL REPORT: 2019 In Review

No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day.  Here’s what it said in 2019: Click here to download “2019 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required).   This report includes extensive, in-depth commentary by our President and CEO Joseph Calhoun, as well as a full review of major economic series...

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SPECIAL REPORT: Don’t Fight The Fed?

QE. Quantitative Easing. The most misunderstood, misinterpreted, misconstrued, mis-overestimated economic policy of the current monetary era. No need for qualifiers or weasel words like “perhaps” or “maybe”. In an age of unprecedented policies – largely ineffective, I might add – in an ocean of official misdirection, quantitative easing stands out as the grandest deception of them all. With the onset of the latest iteration of the policy whose name must not be spoken, it deserves another...

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SPECIAL REPORT: It Was The Eurodollars All Along

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was felt far and wide, in places with no connection at all to the US mortgage market. That is, or should be, a clue that the crisis wasn’t really about sub-prime mortgages at all. There were places, though, that avoided much of the turmoil. One of the oddest and unexpected might be Argentina, a country that needs no outside help whatsoever to create a financial crisis. Indeed, the country, once one of the richest in the world, has spent a good portion of...

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

Is the recession scare over? Can we all come out from under our desks now? The market based economic indicators I follow have improved since my last update two months ago. The 10-year Treasury rate has moved 40 basis points off its low. Real interest rates have moved up as well but not quite as much. The difference is reflected in slightly higher inflation expectations. The yield curve has also steepened as the 10-year Treasury yield rose faster than the 2-year. This is not the type of...

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn’t waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I’ve related in these missives before, he called those things “well-worried”. His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth your time. That has proven to be valuable advice over the years and I think still relevant today. We continue to hear, on an...

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SPECIAL REPORT: Money Market Turmoil

Jeffrey Snider’s Follow The Money Series: Money Market Turmoil On Monday, September 16, funding markets came under significant pressure. In repo, the GC rate (UST) jumped to 2.876% from 2.288% the Friday before. Repo rates and other money rates like federal funds had been elevated already but this 60-basis point move was highly unusual. Our Special Report on the Money Market Turmoil will help you make sense of this short-term funding phenomenon and all its implications, and will counsel...

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

This is a companion piece to last week’s Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The move in Treasuries is by some measures, as extreme as the fall of 2008 when we were in a full blown panic. That to me, is evidence that this move is overly emotional since the...

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