Saturday , October 31 2020
Home / Tag Archives: trade

Tag Archives: trade

Stocks Extend Gains, while Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Stalls

Overview: Soaring US stocks, optimism about a vaccine, and the affirmation of the US-China trade agreement are buoying global equities today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is near seven-month highs and was led today by more than 1% gains in the Nikkei and Kospi.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is around 0.5% firmer to approach the 200-day moving average, which has capped the upside.  US stocks are firmer, and the S&P 500 is set to gap higher again at the opening.  Bond yields 2-4 bp...

Read More »

Cool Video: TD Ameritrade with Ben Lichtenstein

With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade.  It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback's two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it.  There is a glimmer of hope in some quarters that a path through the fiscal impasse might be at hand.  I am not so optimistic and suspect that the impact of the loss of some support will be...

Read More »

Canadian aluminum tariffs likely déjà vu moment for some

Settling in with a favorite film can be comforting in times like these. There’s something reassuring about seeing the same familiar scenes play out on screen. I still laugh at Rodney Dangerfield’s obnoxious tycoon, Al Czervik, in “Caddyshack” or the scene in “Office Space” where disgruntled co-workers take out their frustrations on an unreliable fax machine. Those are classic comedies, though. A repeat viewing of a mob drama like “Goodfellas” can generate the same anxious feelings and...

Read More »

Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports

Overview: Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data.  The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing.  The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delaying additional stimulus.  The US reimposed 10% tariffs on unprocessed aluminum from Canada, while Ottawa threatened dollar-for-dollar...

Read More »

Data and the Virus may Determine the Magnitude of the Dollar’s Bounce

There is no reason to expect the investment climate is going to change next week.  The key drivers remain the same.  The resurgence being seen in the virus is posing a speed bump in the re-opening and recovery process.  The work of monetary and fiscal policy is not over.  The low real and nominal interest rates are encouraging risk-taking by savers, and this means equities, commodities, and emerging markets.  Gold, which is often perceived as a safe haven, appears more driven by the low...

Read More »

Dollar Thumped Ahead of US Jobs Report

Overview:  Market optimism over the possibility of a vaccine in early 2021 overshadowed the continued surge in US cases, where the 50k-a-day threshold of new cases has been breached.  Following the NASDAQ close yesterday at record highs, global equities have advanced.  Led by Hong Kong returning from yesterday's holiday, Asia Pacific equities rallied.  Most local markets rose by more than 1%, though Tokyo and Taiwan lagged.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up over 1% to extend its rally...

Read More »

USD is Offered in Quiet Start to the New Week

Overview:  The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower.  The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%.  China and Taiwan were also greeted with selling as markets re-opened from a two-day holiday at the end of last week.  Led by energy and consumer staples, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 recouped initially losses to poke into positive territory in late...

Read More »

26/6/20: Trade Restrictions: European Companies

BOFIT newsletter out today highlights the scale of restrictive trade measures applicable to the EU exporters across a number of significant markets:Of eleven countries included, three managed to lower trade and investment barriers applying to the EU companies over 2017-2019 period, two countries had unchanged barriers, and six showed increasing barriers to trade and investment. In a way, this reflects a shift away from trade and investment globalization focus on the last three decades toward...

Read More »

Agriculture markets eye normality as countries ease export restrictions

The global food supply chain, as well as demand for agricultural products, faces an unprecedented threat from the coronavirus pandemic. Livelihoods have been destroyed and economies dragged down, while prices of basic foodstuffs soared and countries imposed measures to limit exports and shore up domestic supply, albeit mostly for a short duration. “This is a very peculiar situation for the Food and Agriculture Organization,” Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist with the UN agency, told...

Read More »

Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts

Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity on the back of upticks in the preliminary PMI reading and hesitancy about pushing for what appeared to be breakouts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance, although India and Taiwanese shares were bought....

Read More »