Thursday , February 27 2020
Home / Tag Archives: trade

Tag Archives: trade

Investors’ Confidence Snaps Back

Overview: After shunning risk yesterday, investors re-entered the fray today, and the animal spirits returned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day slide, and China's markets were among the few losers in the region today. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 recovered yesterday's losses in full and is again at record highs. US shares are also trading firmer and are poised to recoup yesterday's decline. Benchmark bond yields are narrowly mixed today with the European periphery...

Read More »

Surprise? China Undercounts Afflictions and Fatalities, Curbs Risk Taking

Overview: There is one overriding driver today, and that is the incorporation of CAT scan diagnoses of the virus in Hubei, ground-zero. This follows the arrival of WHO officials into China a couple days ago. Not only have the cases jumped, but so did the number of deaths. It plays on fears that China's figures are not reliable. But it is not just China. Indonesia is reporting no case, for example, which seems to many observers as incredulous. Investors have responded by taking a little...

Read More »

Dollar Rides High as Eurozone Disappoints, and Caution Sets In

Overview: A more cautious tone is evident today in the markets, which seem to have run well ahead of macro developments and evidence that the new coronavirus is not yet contained. After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly the markets in the region slipping. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 may end its four-day advance as materials, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors drag down the index (~-0.4%), which were not helped by...

Read More »

Stocks Push Higher but more Cautious Tone may be Emerging

Overview:  The bullish enthusiasm that carried the S&P 500 to new closing highs yesterday is helping Asia Pacific and European shares today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third session with Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Korea jumping two percent.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped to new record highs before stabilizing in mid-morning turnover.  US shares are mostly firmer.  Benchmark bond yields have edged higher in Europe and Asia, while the US 10-year yield is hovering...

Read More »

The Return of Spheres of Influence

Traditionally, international relations were driven by what is called spheres of influence.  European and Japanese governments divided Asia and Africa among them. The spheres were often political concessions or the result of direct force,   War was often the price to be paid for increasing one's sphere.  Though simplistically expressed here to a fault, this the world the US entered after being absorbed by the Civil War and Reconstruction.  The Spanish-American War (1898) was the US...

Read More »

Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed

Overview: The global capital markets are calm today as investors await fresh trading incentives. New record highs in the US equity indices gave Asia Pacific stocks a lift, though China and Taiwan were notable exceptions. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm new record highs set last week.  US equities are edging higher in Europe. Benchmark bond yields are little changed. European yields are a little lower, while the US 10-year is steady around 1.78%. UK short-term rates are steadying...

Read More »

15/1/20: What Trade Deal Phase 1/N Says About the Four Horsemen of Apocalypse

Phase 1 of N of the "Greatest Trade Deal" that is "easiest to achieve' by the 'stablest Genius' is hitting the newsflows today. Which brings us to two posts worth reading on the subject:Post 1 via Global Macro Monitor: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/15/phase-1-of-potemkin-trade-deal-signed-sealed-and-yet-to-deliver/ is as always (from that source) excellent. Key takeaways are:"We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring...

Read More »

Hopes of De-Escalation Help Markets Stabilize

Overview: The Iranian retaliatory missile strike on Iraqi-bases housing US forces initially sparked a dramatic risk-off response throughout the capital markets. The muted response by the US coupled with signals from Tehran that it had "concluded" its proportionate measures saw the markets retrace the initial reaction. It was too late for equities in the Asia Pacific region, and several markets (Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) fell more than 1%. Europe is faring better,...

Read More »

2020 Vision

Palpable uncertainties that had been hanging over the investment climate in 2019 were lifted at the end.  The UK election leaves no doubt that Brexit will take place at the end of January.  The new NAFTA looks to be ratified in early 2020.  The US and China have reached an agreement that marks a cessation of the escalation of the tit-for-tat tariffs. Outside of NAFTA2.0, the immediate risks have subsided, but closure is elusive.  The UK and EU will be locked in trade negotiations in...

Read More »

What We Are Not Being Told About The Trade Deal

Unlike most trade deals where the terms are readily available, the details of the Phase One trade agreement between China and the U.S. will not be announced nor signed in public. Accordingly, investors are left to cobble together official comments, anonymous statements from officials, and rumors to ascertain how it might affect their portfolios. Based on official and unofficial sources, existing tariffs will remain in place, new tariff hikes will be delayed, and China will purchase...

Read More »