Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition (PDF) Institute for New Economic Thinking In response to our opening question, “Is there a path forward that can get us there cheaply and quickly?”, our answer is an emphatic “Yes!”. Our quantitative analysis supports other recent efforts using up-to-date data and technology assumptions that reach a similar conclusion. The key is to maintain the current high growth rates of rapidly progressing clean energy technologies for the next decade. This is required to build up the industrial capabilities and technical know-how necessary to produce, install and operate these technologies at scale as fast as possible so that we can profit from the resulting cost reductions sooner rather than later. The belief that the green energy
Lambert Strether considers the following as important: Guest Post, Links
This could be interesting, too:
Lambert Strether writes 2:00PM Water Cooler 10/22/2021
Yves Smith writes Expectations Data Indicate the US Is Entering Recession About Now
Lambert Strether writes Links 10/22/2021
Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition (PDF) Institute for New Economic Thinking
In response to our opening question, “Is there a path forward that can get us there cheaply and quickly?”, our answer is an emphatic “Yes!”. Our quantitative analysis supports other recent efforts using up-to-date data and technology assumptions that reach a similar conclusion. The key is to maintain the current high growth rates of rapidly progressing clean energy technologies for the next decade. This is required to build up the industrial capabilities and technical know-how necessary to produce, install and operate these technologies at scale as fast as possible so that we can profit from the resulting cost reductions sooner rather than later.
The belief that the green energy transition will be expensive has been a major driver of the ineffective response to climate change for the last forty years. This pessimism is at odds with past technological cost-improvement trends, and risks locking humanity into an expensive and dangerous energy future. While arguments for a rapid green transition often cite benefits such as the avoidance of climate damages, less air pollution and lower energy price volatility, these benefits are often contrasted against discussions about the associated costs of transitioning. Our analysis suggests that such trade-offs are unlikely to exist: a greener, healthier and safer global energy system is also likely to be cheaper.
Big if true. Readers?
The Cheap and Easy Climate Fix That Can Cool the Planet Fast Bloomberg. Methane.
California’s Oil Leak Is Part of a Larger Disaster in the Making New York Magazine
The Nasty Logistics of Returning Your Too-Small Pants The Atlantic. Supply chain follies.
Crews Are Abandoned on Ships in Record Numbers Without Pay, Food or a Way Home WSJ. See NC summarizing the “crew change crisis” over a year ago. I suppose we’ll be seeing stories about a shipping labor shortage next. “People just don’t want to work!”
How supply chain chaos and sky-high costs could last until 2023 American Shipper
Musk Says Tesla Software Update Delayed by a Few Days Bloomberg. “Tesla Inc is delaying the rollout of the FSD Beta 10.2 software update due to last-minute concerns.” FSD = Full Self-Driving. What could have gone wrong?
Nationally Representative Social Contact Patterns in the United States, August 2020-April 2021 (preprint) (PDF) medRxiv. From the Discussion: “Overall, national contact rates in Spring 2021 were similar to those in Fall 2020, with most contacts in both surveys reported at work. The number of contacts reported was not uniform across groups, with those identifying as non-White, non-Black, non-Asian, and non-Hispanic reporting high rates of contact relative to other racial and ethnic groups. Contact rates were highest among those with lower incomes and in specific occupational categories, including retail, hospitality and food service, and transportation. While the number of contacts reported were mostly similar from baseline to follow-up, younger adults (aged 25-34) reported higher numbers of contacts at follow-up as compared to baseline. Finally, we found that those testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies reported a higher number of daily contacts than those who were seronegative. Collectively, these findings provide robust empirical evidence for differences in social behavior among demographic groups, highlighting the profound disparities that have become the hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Multicomponent Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission — Nine Overnight Youth Summer Camps, United States, June–August 2021 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC. “The combination of high vaccination rates among persons eligible for vaccination, frequent testing, podding, modified programming, masking, physical distancing, and attention to hand hygiene afforded campers and staff members safe engagement with their peers and camp community. These findings also highlight important guiding factors for development and implementation of COVID-19 prevention protocols in other youth-focused settings, and related youth programs.” Ventilation is not mentioned, but from what I recall of summer camp, most everything was outdoors or might as well have been. Notice, however, that since CDC recommends these strategies for schools, they continue to suppress aersosol transmission and endorse the hygiene theatre of handwashing.
‘Starting a Fire’: U.S. and China Enter Dangerous Territory Over Taiwan NYT. This nugget was not in the story:
Biden apparently told Xi this: “My father used to tell me, Joey, the only thing worse than a war is an unintentional war.” Excellent, grim piece by @ChuBailiang @stevenleemyers https://t.co/WnXmcnPUwi
— Sui-Lee Wee 黄瑞黎 (@suilee) October 9, 2021
CIA creates working group on China as threats keep rising AP (Furzy Mouse).
Garment workers face a fresh threat: a boycott Frontier Myanmar. Oil or jade would seem to be closer to the Tatmadaw jugular than apparel. Or drugs.
Indian minister’s son detained after car kills protesting farmers FT. The dude should move to Florida, he’d get away clean.
Dhakis for Durga: without skipping a drumbeat People’s Archive of Rural India
African agriculture without African farmers Al Jazeera
When others stay silent about the ills of British capitalism, liars like Johnson rush in William Davies, Guardian. Particularly ironic given the role that Guardian played in defenestrating Corbyn. Which “others,” exactly, does Davies expect to perform the critique?
Democrats en Deshabille
Harrison Nominates New Corporate Lobbyists to Join the DNC ReadSludge. Surprisingingly horrid, even for the DNC. Commentary:
Speaking virtually at the Democratic National Committee's Fall meeting, President Biden urged Democrats to unify and deliver ahead of next year's mid-term elections pic.twitter.com/8zNhispKbD
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 10, 2021
“Unify” and “deliver.” “Build Back Better” is certainly sharpening the contradictions:
Put another way: The Democratic Party’s fundamental crisis is that it cannot satisfy its corporate donors and also solve the problems created by those corporate donors. And quite often, the party refuses to do anything other than satisfy its corporate donors.
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) October 9, 2021
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema Is Literally Teaching A Course On Fundraising The Intercept. Sinema, Manchin, and Gottheimer can all be seen as representative types under Pelosi’s “beautiful big tent“: Sinema, of the corrupt Non-Profit Industrial Complex; Manchin, of the corrupt local gentry; and Gottheimer, of the corrupt FIRE sector. Each one extracting a steady stream of funding from their respective host bodies. When Pelosi “welcomes the diversity,” that’s the diversity she’s talking about.
Our Famously Free Press
Google and YouTube to prohibit advertisements on content with false information on climate change CBS. Greenwald calls attention to this language: “Google said it will ‘look carefully’ at whether a piece of content is making or simply discussing it.” If a policy of “prohibited claims” on Covid had been in effect in early 2020, neither masking nor aerosol transmission would ever have gotten traction, at least within the Googlesphere. The same is true for claims about Iraqi WMDs or RussiaGate. In all these cases, claims from the margins were correct, and would have been censored. The same would be true of MMT.
The NWSL Was Working As Intended Defector
Fundamentally, nothing will change, expecially health care for profit:
The hill I will die on is that THIS is 100% a bigger factor than all anti-vaxx propaganda combined.
This is the reason anti-vaxx propaganda is even able to gain a foothold in the first place. pic.twitter.com/nS1xv3bWvD
— Eldon Katz (@Eldon_Katz) October 9, 2021
I think Biden’s speech slammed the door on “people having their fears and concerns addressed”: “We’ve been patient, but our patience is wearing thin.” Maybe next time.
Already own a trained arabian hunting falcon? Collateralize it. Secure a loan financing another falcon. That falcon? Collateralize it too. There's no end to the number of falcons you can buy. The bank bundles its interests into a Falcon Backed Security and sells it. EVERYONE WINS pic.twitter.com/l5Ob8Yj17o
— 𓅃 UAE Exotic Falconry & Finance (@FalconryFinance) October 9, 2021
(We have linked to this site before, but this is a revised pitch.)
Imperial Collapse Watch
Photographs from Chris Arnade, on a walk through Buffalo. Really worth looking through the entire gallery:
So begins my walk, from Tonawanda to Lackawanna, (How Seuss-ian!) around some nice old school charm.
Hopefully to end in a bar in time for happy hour pic.twitter.com/RLL8unKxZq
— Reginald & No-Name 🐢 (@Chris_arnade) October 9, 2021
These photos could have come from no place other than America, and no time other than this (post-deindustrialization).
Black Injustice Tipping Point
America’s Economic Divide In Two Stories Heisenberg Report. Very good. And read all the way to the end.
Who Goes Nazi? Dorothy Thompson, Harper’s. From 1941. Still germane?
How the world’s biggest brain maps could transform neuroscience Nature. It’s not neuroscience I’m worried about:
A Mars Rover Explored a Wasteland and Found an Oasis The Atlantic
The Wild Joy of Foraging My Own Food Texas Monthly. I doubt very much this will scale.
Antidote du jour (via):
The Japanese 🇯🇵 Puffer Fish is probably nature's greatest artist 🐟
To grab a female’s attention he creates something that defies belief 😲
— Erik Solheim (@ErikSolheim) October 9, 2021
Apparently, judgements about Beauty can cross species.
Another Bonus Antidote (Ignacio):
Los pulpos cambian de color mientras duermen.
Estos cambios de color corresponden a dos estados de sueño:
💤 Sueño tranquilo.
💤 Sueño activo, similar a nuestra fase REM, que es cuando los humanos soñamos más.
— Fundación Biodiversidad (@FBiodiversidad) October 8, 2021
For World Octopus Day.
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.