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Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Clinton and Obama Endorse)

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Here is the latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. The structure is a little different from the last iteration (‘Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Status Quo, with a Look at the Winners So Far)). As usual, the horserace information is the latest available

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Here is the latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. The structure is a little different from the last iteration (‘Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Status Quo, with a Look at the Winners So Far)). As usual, the horserace information is the latest available from the Inside Elections tipsheet (last updated August 2, 2018). I have changed the database to add columns for ratings from the Cook Political Report (CP) (last updated July 27, 2018). This doesn’t show up yet in Table I, because I have on “Previous” data yet, but will show in the figures. (For those of you following along at home, the “Horserace” column is now “Inside Elections” (IE). I also added Democracy for America (DFA) to the Backers column. I have also added a column to the database for the largest city in each district, to make the districts a bit easier for readers to visualize. (This is sometimes a judgement call, since often big cities are split between districts.) I have also updated all the backers, and added columns for endorsements by Clinton, Obama, and Sanders (which appears in the figures). As always, I welcome corrections from readers.

Herewith the table. This week, the data gives us a really interesting insight into the nature of the Democrat Party.

Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (07-23).

District Date Party Status Incumbent IE IE (Prev) PVI HRC City Challengers
AR-02 05-22 R Hill Likely-R Likely-R R+17 -10.70 Little Rock Gwen Combs (Women’s March; more.) [m, e, w], Jonathan Dunkley (more) [e][M], Paul Spencer (Rural broadbamd.) [e][M], Clarke Tucker (More.) [DCCC, DP][fM]
AZ-01 08-28 D O’Halleran Tilt-D Tilt-D R+02 -1.10 Flagstaff Miguel Olivas [DP]
AZ-02 08-28 R Open McSally Tilt-D Tilt-D R+01 4.90 Tucson William Foster, Matt Heinz [DP; h], Ann Kirkpatrick (more, more; but see here; more.) [EL, DCCC, DP][fM], Billy Kovacs, Mary Matiella (more) [DFA, JD; m][M], Barbara Sherry (more), Bruce Wheeler (more) [DP][M], Yahya Yuksel [DP][M]
AZ-08 08-28 R Special VACANT Likely-R Likely-R R+13 -21.10 PhoenixS Judith McHale (McHale dropped out prior to the filing deadline), Bob Musselwhite (More.) [DP; e], Bob Olsen [m, l], Hiral Tipirneni (More; more.) [EL, IN; h][fM], Brianna Westbrook (More; more.) [JD, OR][M]
CA-04 06-05 R McClintock Likely-R Likely-R R+10 -14.70 Placerville Regina Bateson. (More.) [o], Roza Calderon (More. Also DSA-endorsed.) [BN, JD, OR; s][M], Robert Lawton (More.) [M], Richard Martin (More), Jessica Morse (More; more.) [EL; m][fM], Rochelle Wilcox (More.) [l]
CA-07 06-05 D Bera Likely-D Likely-D D+03 11.40 SacramentoS [No challenger] (With no challenger, Bera is the winnner.)
CA-10 06-05 R Denham Tilt-R Tilt-R EVEN 3.00 Modesto Mike Barkley [DP; m][M], Lisa Battista, Mateo Morelos Bedolla (More.) [DP][M], Michael Eggman, Josh Harder [DCCC; e][M], Virginia Madueno [EL][fM], Dotty Nygard, Dotty Nygard [M], Seth Vaughn, Sue Zwahlen [DP]
CA-21 06-05 R Valadao Likely-R Likely-R D+05 15.50 BakersfieldS TJ Cox (More.) [DCCC], Emilio Huerta (More.)
CA-25 06-05 R Knight Tilt-R Tilt-R EVEN 6.70 Palmdale Bryan Caforio [JD, OR][M], Kelan Farrell-Smith (More.), Daniel Fleming , Diedra Greenaway (More.) [DP], Katie Hill [EL][fM], Michael Masterman-Smith (More.) [h], Scott McVarish (More.), Mary Pallant (more) [DP], Jess Phoenix [OR]
CA-39 06-05 R Open Royce Toss-Up Toss-Up EVEN 8.60 Fullerton Jay Chen (More.) [m, in, s, e][M], Gil Cisneros (more; more) [DCCC; m], Sam Jammal (more) [DP][M], Phil Janowicz (More.) [e], Suzi Park Leggett [DP], Ted Rusk, Cybil Steed (more) [e], Andy Thorburn (more) [OR; e][M], Mai Khanh Tran (more, more) [EL; h]
CA-45 06-05 R Walters Lean-R Lean-R R+03 5.40 Irvine Brian Forde, Brian Forde [DP; s], John Graham, Kia Hamadanchy [DP][M], Dave Min (CAP.) [DP], Katie Porter [DFA, EL, PCCC, DCCC][M], Greg Ramsay, Eric Rywalski, Ron Varasteh
CA-48 06-05 R Rohrabacher Tilt-R Tilt-R R+04 1.70 Huntington Beach Hans Keirstead [h][fM], Michael Kotick, Laura Oatman, Rachel Payne (Googler; more) [EL; s], Harley Rouda [IN, DCCC], Deanie Schaarsmith, Omar Siddiqui [in][fM], Tony Zarkades [m][M]
CA-49 06-05 R Open Issa Toss-Up Lean-D R+01 7.50 Oceanside Douglas Applegate [JD; m][M], Sara Jacobs (more) [EL, DP][M], Paul Kerr (more ) [m][M], Mike Levin (more) [DFA, PCCC, DCCC, DP][M]
CA-50 06-05 R Hunter Likely-R Likely-R R+11 -15.00 Escondido Pierre Beauregard (More.) [DP], Josh Butner [m], Ammar Campa-Najjar. (More; more; more.) [DFA, IN, JD, OR, DP][M], Gloria Chadwick (More.) [h, w], Glenn Jensen (More), Patrick Malloy (More; more) [M], Alex Spilger (more)
CO-06 06-26 R Coffman Tilt-R Tilt-R D+02 8.90 DenverS Jason Crow [DCCC, DP; m], Erik Stanger, Erik Stanger [M], Levi Tillemann [OR, DP][M]
FL-07 08-28 D Murphy Lean-D Lean-D EVEN 7.30 Orlando Chardo Richardson [BN, JD; m][M]
FL-13 08-28 D Crist Safe-D Safe-D D+02 3.20 Saint Petersburg [No challenger]
FL-26 08-28 R Curbelo Tilt-R Tilt-R D+06 16.30 MiamiS Demetries Grimes [m], Ricky Junquera (more), Steven Machat [DP][M], Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [EL, DCCC], Steve Smith [m]
FL-27 08-28 R Open Ros-Lehtinen Lean-D Lean-D D+05 19.60 Miami Mary Barzee Flores [EL], Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (more) [DP; e], Matt Haggman, Michael Hepburn (more) [BN, JD; e], Mark Anthony Person, David Richardson (more, more) [DP][M], Jose Javier Rodriguez (more) [DP], Ken Russell [DP], Donna Shalala (more; more) [EL, DP]
GA-06 05-22 R Handel Likely-R Likely-R R+08 -1.50 Roswell Kevin Abel (Runoff, July 24. Abel.), Steven Knight Griffin [h][fM], Bobby Kaple (More; more. ), Lucy McBath (Runoff, July 24. More; more.) [EL, DCCC]
GA-07 05-22 R Woodall Likely-R Likely-R R+09 -6.30 Peachtree Corners Kathleen Allen (More) [h][M], Carolyn Bourdeaux (Run-off July 24. More; more.) [EL, DP; e], Melissa Davis (More.), David Kim (Run-off July 24. More. ) [e], Ethan Pham [fM], Steve Reilly
IA-01 06-05 R Blum Toss-Up Toss-Up D+01 -3.50 Cedar Rapids Abby Finkenauer [EL, DCCC, DP], Thomas Heckroth [DP], George Ramsey [m, l], Courtney Rowe [JD; m][M]
IA-03 06-05 R Young Likely-R Likely-R R+01 15.30 Des Moines Cindy Axne (More.) [EL, DCCC][fM], Pete D’Alessandro (More; more.) [JD, OR; s][M], Eddie Mauro
IL-06 03-20 R Roskam Tilt-R Tilt-R R+02 7.00 Naperville Becky Anderson (Becky Anderson), Sean Casten (more) [DCCC][fM], Carole Cheney [DP], Grace Haaf (More), Amanda Howland [DP; e], Ryan Huffman [DP][M], Kelly Mazeski (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Geoffrey Petzel (More), Austin Songer, Becky Anderson Wilkins (more), Jennifer Zordani
IL-12 03-20 R Bost Lean-R Lean-R R+05 -14.80 Carbondale David Bequette [m], Brendan Kelly (more) [DCCC; m, in, l]
IL-13 03-20 R R. Davis Likely-R Likely-R R+03 -5.50 Decatur Jonathan Ebel (More.) [m, in], David Gill (More; more.) [h][M], Erik Jones (More; more.) [DP; l][fM], Betsy Londrigan (More.) [EL, DCCC, DP; w][fM], Angel Sides (More) [M], Benjamin Webb (More.) [e], Mark Wicklund (More.)
IN-02 05-08 R Walorski Likely-R Likely-R R+11 -23.20 South Bend Aaron Bush, Douglas Carpenter (More) [h][fM], Pat Hackett (More) [fM], Mel Hall (More.) [OR, DP; h], Yatish Joshi (More) [DP][fM], Roland Leech, John Petroff (More)
KS-02 08-07 R Open Jenkins Lean-R Lean-R R+10 -18.40 Topeka Paul Davis [DCCC, DP], Nathan Schmidt (more) [DP]
KS-03 08-07 R Yoder Lean-R Lean-R R+04 1.30 Kansas CityS Sharice Davids (More; more) [EL], Chris Haulmark (More), Reggie Marselus, Mike McCamon (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], Andrea Ramsey (More.) [EL], Jay Sidie, Brent Welder [BN, JD, OR, PCCC, DP][M], Sylvia Williams
KY-06 05-22 R Barr Toss-Up Lean-R R+09 -15.30 Lexington Jim Gray (more) [DP], Theodore Green, Daniel Kemph, Amy McGrath [DCCC, DP; m], Reggie Thomas [DP; e], Geoff Young (perennial candidate)
ME-02 06-12 R Poliquin Lean-R Lean-R R+02 -17.60 Bangor Phil Cleaves (Dexter rural mail carrier), Jonathan Fulford (more; withdrawal.) [DP][fM], Jared Golden (more; ) [GS, DCCC, DP; m][M], Craig Olson (More.) [DP][fM], Tim Rich (More.), Lucas St. Clair (More; more; more; more) [M]
MI-06 08-07 R Upton Likely-R Likely-R R+04 -8.40 Kalamazoo David Benac (More) [JD, DP; e][M], Paul Clements (More) [e][M], Rich Eichholz [s][fM], George Franklin (More) [DP], Eponine Garrod (More; more.) [s], Aida Gray [m], Matt Longjohn (More) [h]
MI-07 08-07 R Walberg Likely-R Likely-R R+07 -17.00 Ann ArborS Gretchen Driskell (More.) [EL, DCCC, DP], Steven Friday (More; more.) [m, s][M]
MI-08 08-07 R Bishop Lean-R Lean-R R+04 -6.70 Lansing Elissa Slotkin (Money race; “the real deal”; Biden endorses.) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM], Chris Smith
MI-11 08-07 R Open Trott Toss-Up Toss-Up R+04 -4.40 Livonia Tim Greimel (Site not responsive.) [DP], Suneel Gupta, Dan Haberman [fM], Fayrouz Saad [DFA, JD, DP][M], Haley Stevens [DP]
MN-01 08-14 D Open Walz Toss-Up Toss-Up R+05 -14.90 Rochester Johnny Akzam [M], Dan Feehan (more, more, more) [DCCC, DP; m], Vicki Jensen [DP], Bob Ries (more) [m], Joe Sullivan, Rich Wright (more) [DP; m, l][M]
MN-02 08-14 R Lewis Toss-Up Toss-Up R+02 -1.20 Eagan Angie Craig (more) [EL, DCCC], Jeff Erdmann (more) [e][M]
MN-03 08-14 R Paulsen Lean-R Lean-R D+01 9.40 MinneapolisS Brian Santa Maria [M], Adam Jennings (more) [m], Dean Phillips [DCCC]
MN-07 08-14 D Peterson Likely-D Likely-D R+12 -30.80 Moorhead [No challenger]
MN-08 08-14 D Open Nolan Toss-Up Toss-Up R+04 -15.60 Duluth Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (more) [DP], Michelle Lee [M], Jason Metsa (more) [DP], Leah Phifer (more) [in][M], Joe Radinovich [DP]
MT-01 06-05 R Gianforte Likely-R Likely-R R+11 -20.60 Billings John Heenan (More; more; more.) [BN; s][M], Grant Kier (More; more.) [DP], John Meyer, Lynda Moss (More.) [DP], Jared Pettinato (More; ) [DP; l], Kathleen Williams (More; more; more.) [EL, DP], Tom Woods (More. ) [DP; e]
NC-09 05-08 R Pittenger Tilt-R Tilt-R R+08 -11.60 Monroe Christian Cano (More; more.) [fM], Dan McCready (More; more.) [DCCC; m], Maria Warren (More.) [e]
NC-13 05-08 R Budd Likely-R Likely-R R+06 -9.40 CharlotteS Adam Coker (More.) [DP], Kathy Manning (More; ; more; more.) [EL, DCCC], Beniah McMiller
NM-02 06-05 R Open Pearce Lean-R Lean-R R+06 -10.20 AlbuquerqueS David Alcon (More.), David Baake (More.), Ronald Fitzherbert, Madeleine Hildebrandt [m, e], Tony Martinez (More; more.) [m], Angel Pena (More; more.), Xochitl Torres Small (More; more; more.) [EL, DCCC, DP], Adolf Zubia (More.)
NE-02 05-15 R Bacon Tilt-R Tilt-R R+04 -2.20 Omaha Brad Ashford [DCCC, DP], Kara Eastman (On her conversion to #MedicareForAll; more.) [DFA, EL, JD, PCCC, DCCC; e][M]
NH-01 09-11 D Open Shea-Porter Tilt-D Tilt-D R+02 -1.60 Manchester Mark S. Mackenzie (more, more) [DP], Deaglan McEachern (more) [DP], Mindi Messmer (more) [BN; s][M], Terence O’Rourke [m, l][M], Chris Pappas (more) [DP], Levi Sanders (more; more) [M], Lincoln Soldati [l], Maura Sullivan (more) [EL, DP; m]
NJ-02 06-05 R Open LoBiondo Likely-D Tilt-D R+01 -4.60 Atlantic City Will Cunningham (more) [DP], Sean Thom (more) [e][M], Jeff Van Drew (more) [DCCC, DP], Tanzie Youngblood (more) [e]
NJ-03 06-05 R MacArthur Likely-R Likely-R R+02 -6.20 Tom’s River Rich Dennison (More.) [DP], Katherine Hartman (More.), Andrew Kim (More; more.) [PCCC, DCCC; m, in], Frederick John Lavergne (More) [DP]
NJ-05 06-05 D Gottheimer Safe-D Safe-D R+03 -1.10 Hackensack [No challenger] (Now safe D.)
NJ-07 06-05 R Lance Tilt-R Tilt-R R+03 1.10 Union Township Peter Jacob (On the Justice Democrats; Congressional candidate plans ‘Medicare-for-all’ town hall in Bedminster) [BN, JD, OR][M], Goutam Jois, Tom Malinowski [DCCC, DP]
NJ-11 06-05 R Open Frelinghuysen Tilt-D Tilt-D R+03 -1.00 Wayne Mitchell Cobert [l], Jack Gebbia (more) [m], Tamara Harris (more), Alison Heslin, Mikie Sherrill (more) [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], Mark Washburne [e][M]
NV-03 06-12 D Open Rosen Tilt-D Tilt-D R+02 -1.00 Las VegasS Richard Hart, Susie Lee (more; more)) [EL, DCCC; e], Jack Love [M], Guy Pinjuv (more) [s], Steve Schiffman, Eric Stoltz, Michael Weiss (more) [M]
NV-04 06-12 D Open Kihuen Likely-D Likely-D D+03 4.90 Las VegasS John Anzalone (more) [e], Steven Horsford (more) [DCCC, DP], Patricia Spearman (more) [DP; m][M], Allison Stephens (more) [DP; e], Amy Vilela (more) [BN, IN, JD][M], Sid Zeller [m, in]
NY-11 06-26 R Donovan Likely-R Likely-R R+03 -9.80 Staten Island Michael DeVito, Jr. (More.) [m, e][M], Zach Emig (Bond trader; more.) [M], Radhakrishna Mohan (More), Max Rose (More; more; more.) [DCCC; m, l][fM], Paul Sperling (More), Omar Vaid (More) [fM]
NY-19 06-26 R Faso Tilt-R Tilt-R R+02 -6.80 Woodstock Jeff Beals [JD; in, e][M], David Clegg [M], Erin Collier (more) [EL, DP], Antonio Delgado [DCCC][fM], Brian Flynn [M], Gareth Rhodes [DP][M], Pat Ryan [m, in][fM]
NY-22 06-26 R Tenney Tilt-R Tilt-R R+06 -15.50 Utica Anthony Brindisi [DCCC, DP][fM]
NY-24 06-26 R Katko Likely-R Likely-R D+03 3.60 Syracuse Dana Balter (More; more; more) [DFA, IN, OR, PCCC, DCCC, DP; e][M], Scott Comegys (More; more; more) [DP], Philip LaTessa [DP], Anne Messenger (More; more) [fM], Juanita Perez Williams (More; more; more: more.) [DCCC, DP; m, e][fM]
OH-01 05-08 R Chabot Likely-R Likely-R R+05 -6.60 Cincinnati Robert Barr (More), Aftab Pureval (More; more; more.) [DCCC; l], Laura Ann Weaver (More) [h][fM]
OH-12 05-08 R Special VACANT Tilt-R Tilt-R R+07 -11.30 ColumbusS Ed Albertson (More; more) [m][fM], Crystal Lett (More: ) [w], Danny O’Connor (More; more; more) [DP], Jackie Patton (More; more; ) [h, w], John Peters [e], John Russell (More; more.) [IN][M], Zach Scott (More; more; more.) [l], Doug Wilson [h][M]
OH-14 05-08 R Joyce Likely-R Likely-R R+05 -11.50 ClevelandS Betsy Rader [EL, DCCC]
PA-01 05-15 R Fitzpatrick Tilt-R Tilt-R D+31 61.30 Levittown Steve Bacher [DP; e][M], Rachel Reddick [EL; m], Scott Wallace (more) [DCCC, DP]
PA-05 05-15 R Open Meehan Likely-D Likely-D R+13 -28.80 PhiladelphiaS Larry Arata [e], George Badey (more) [DP], Shelly Chauncey (more) [in][fM], Margo Davidson [DP], Thaddeus Kirkland [DP], Richard Lazer (more) [DP][M], Lindy Li (more), Ashley Lunkenheimer (more) [l], Dan Muroff (more; more) [DP], Mary Gay Scanlon [EL], Molly Sheehan (more) [s][M], Greg Vitali (more) [DP], David Wertime, Theresa Wright
PA-06 05-15 R Costello Likely-D Likely-D R+02 0.60 West Chester Chrissy Houlahan (more; more) [EL, DCCC; m]
PA-07 05-15 R Open Dent Tilt-D Tilt-D R+01 2.30 Allentown David Clark, Rick Daugherty [DP], Greg Edwards [JD][M], John Morganelli [DP; l], Roger Ruggles (more) [e], Susan Wild (more; more) [EL, DCCC; l]
PA-08 05-15 R Cartwright Lean-D Lean-D R+02 -0.20 Scranton [No challenger]
PA-10 05-15 R Perry Likely-R Likely-R R+16 -35.90 Harrisbug Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson (More; more; more; more) [EL, DP; w], Eric Ding (More; more) [s, h][fM], Alan Howe (More; more; more) [m][fM], George Scott (More; more; more) [m, in][fM]
PA-17 05-15 R Rothfus Toss-Up Toss-Up R+01 -10.10 PittsbrughS Conor Lamb [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). More; more; more.)
TX-07 03-06 R Culberson Tilt-R Tilt-R R+07 1.40 HoustonS Joshua Butler [h, e], James Cargas [DP], Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [EL, DCCC], Laura Moser (more) [JD, DP], Ivan Sanchez [DP][fM], Alex Triantaphyllis, Jason Westin (background; reflections on his loss) [h]
TX-21 03-06 R Open Smith Likely-R Likely-R R+10 -10.00 Austin Derrick Crowe (More; more) [JD, DP][M], Joseph Kopser (More; more; more; more; more; more; more; more) [m][fM], Elliott McFadden (More) [DP][M], Rixi Melton [e][M], Mary Wilson (More; more; more) [e][M]
TX-23 03-06 R Hurd Toss-Up Toss-Up R+01 3.40 San AntonioS Gina Ortiz Jones [DFA, EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], Rick Trevino [JD, OR, DP][M]
TX-32 03-06 R Sessions Toss-Up Likely-R R+05 1.90 DallasS Colin Allred (More; more; more; more) [DCCC, DP][fM], David Henry, , Steve Love, [m, s], Todd Maternowski, Ed Meier (More; more) [DP][fM], Danielle Pellett (More) [m, s], Chris Suprun, Darrell Rodriguez, George Rodriguez (More) [fM], Lillian Salerno (More: more) [DP][fM], Brett Shipp (More; more) [fM]
UT-04 06-26 R Love Lean-R Lean-R R+13 -6.70 Salt Lake CityS Sheldon Kirkham (more), Ben McAdams [DCCC, DP], Darlene McDonald [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd, Tom Taylor [s][M]
VA-02 06-12 R Taylor Likely-R Likely-R R+03 -3.40 Virginia Beach Elaine Luria (More; more) [EL, DCCC; m], Karen Mallard (More) [DP; e]
VA-05 06-12 R Garrett Likely-R Likely-R R+06 -11.10 Charlottesville Leslie Cockburn (More; more) [EL][M], Ben Cullop (More; more; more) [e], (More) [m], Adam Slate, Andrew Sneathern (More; more) [l][fM]
VA-07 06-12 R Brat Lean-R Lean-R R+06 -6.50 RichmondS Abigail Spanberger (More; more) [EL, DCCC; in, l, e], Dan Ward (More; more; more) [m]
VA-10 06-12 R Comstock Toss-Up Toss-Up D+01 10.00 Leesburg Shadi Ayyas [DP; h], Julia Biggins (more) [s], Alison Kiehl Friedman (more) [DP; in], Daniel Helmer (more) [m][fM], Julien Modica, Paul Pelletier (more) [l], Michael Pomerleano (more), Lindsey Davis Stover (more) [DP], Jennifer Wexton (more) [EL, DCCC, DP; l]
WA-05 08-07 R McMorris Rodgers Likely-R Likely-R R+08 -20.10 Spokane Lisa Brown (More; more; more) [EL, DCCC, DP; e], Matt Sutherland
WA-08 08-07 R Open Reichert Toss-Up Toss-Up EVEN 3.00 Wenatchee Poga Ahn, Thomas Cramer [M], Shannon Hader (more) [h], Robert Hunziker (more) [M], Brian Kostenko [M], Jason Rittereiser (more; more.) [IN; l][M], Kim Schrier (more) [EL, IN; h]
WI-01 08-14 R Open Ryan Lean-R Lean-R R+19 -10.30 Kenosha Randy Bryce (more) [DFA, JD, PCCC, DCCC][fM], Cathy Myers (more) [e][M]
WV-03 05-08 R Open Jenkins Likely-R Likely-R R+23 -49.20 Huntington Paul Davis [DCCC], Janice Hagerman, Shirley Love (More; ) [DP], Richard Ojeda (More; more; more) [DCCC, DP; m][fM]
  • Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time[5]). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
  • Backer keys are BN, DFA, EL, GS, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Democracy for America, Emily’s List, Great Slate, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
  • Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.
  • In the cities column, a subscripted “S” (S) denotes “Suburb.”

And now to some results.

Figure 1: Status Changes by District

(There are no changes from the previous iteration.)

I’ve heard it said that the Inside Elections leans Republican, and the Cook Political Report leans Democrat, so I thought I’d compare them:

Figure 2: Toss-Ups, according to Inside Elections (IE) and the Cook Political Report (CR)

Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Clinton and Obama Endorse)

I compared toss-ups, because I felt that districts that are “on the bubble” would be the best way to see how each handicapper leans. As you can see, although the contours of the toss-ups are approximately the same, CR leans to the Democrats (I won’t say “to the left”) compared to IE. (That’s fine with me, because this cynical and counter-suggestible analyst would rather avoid “wave” triumphalism; and when IE throws in the towel, we’ll know the “wave” has broken.)

Clinton’s endorsements — nominally, those of “Onward Together (OT), her Astroturf organization — came on July 31; Obama’s, on August 1.

Figure 3: Endorsements by Obama and Clinton

Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Clinton and Obama Endorse)

(I’ve helpfully highlighted “insurgent” backers like Justice Democrats (JD). And just to make the message of Figure 2 more pointed:

Figure 4: Non-DCCC Endorsements by Obama and Clinton

Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Clinton and Obama Endorse)

These two figures tell us two things: First, the Obama and Clinton’s endorsements are a nearly complete subset of the DCCC’s, and if you treat Emily’s List (EL) as an equivalent of the DCCC, as far as being a creature of the Democrat establishment, there’s only one outlier: CA-50.

Second, the Democrat Party really is split. As you can see, Obama, Clinton, and the DCCC’s endorsements overlap in only a single case (again, CA-50) with “insurgent” backers like Justice Democrats (JD) and Our Revolution (OR). Negative confirmation: Obama did not endorse Ocasio-Cortez (“Party Unity is for Rubes“). Her district is a safe Democrat seat (unless Crowley, running as a straw on the Working Families line, somehow takes it away from her), so perhaps that doesn’t matter: Positive confirmation: Obama and Clinton didn’t endorse Bryce in WI-01, although — because? — Sanders did, even though the DCCC did, and the seat used to be Paul Ryan’s![1]

We are also left with the brute fact of the remarkable unamamity of opinion in the Democrat establishment between the Party organ, the DCCC, and the former competing, now apparently allied, elder electeds, Clinton and Obama. The latter suddenly turned to join the former, and now they are all going in the same direction, like a school of fish! Institutionally, how was this achieved? It’s not like anybody voted on this, or there was a Party Congress, or whatever. In what venue where the decisions made? Using what communications tools? When we finally come to model the Democratic Party — perhaps as a crime syndicate — answers to these questions will be important.

Figure 5: Districts Likely Targeted

Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Clinton and Obama Endorse)

In the abstract, taking the 23 seats the Democrats need to take to regain control of the House looks doable (see especially the HRC margin of victory or defeat). As ever, the question is whether these Democrats can do that.

It will be interesting to see what today’s results will bring!


[1] One might argue that the “insurgents” “stayed in their lane” by deliberately avoiding DCCC districts, to avoid “helping Trump.” That implies, however, that the insurgents are institutionally distinct and, as a faction, capable of collective action.

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