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Moving Back to My Own Site at Mishtalk.Com

Summary:
Eddie_T6 hrsWith each day that passes without a verdict, anger will build among those who view George Floyd as a murdered innocent.......but the odds also increase that the jury might not reach a verdict at all. A mistrial is as bad as an acquittal in terms of the expectation of violent demonstrations....and indeed, it isn’t clear to me that even a murder two conviction would keep the masses of angry people from burning some more things down, maybe causing the deaths of others, innocent or not. I don’t think an acquittal is possible.....very, very low probability of that anyway. But a manslaughter conviction will be perceived by many as a whitewash. I think a murder three conviction is the most likely outcome....I think a mistrial is the second most likely now, with a manslaughter

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Eddie_T

With each day that passes without a verdict, anger will build among those who view George Floyd as a murdered innocent.......but the odds also increase that the jury might not reach a verdict at all.

A mistrial is as bad as an acquittal in terms of the expectation of violent demonstrations....and indeed, it isn’t clear to me that even a murder two conviction would keep the masses of angry people from burning some more things down, maybe causing the deaths of others, innocent or not.

I don’t think an acquittal is possible.....very, very low probability of that anyway. But a manslaughter conviction will be perceived by many as a whitewash.

I think a murder three conviction is the most likely outcome....I think a mistrial is the second most likely now, with a manslaughter conviction being third most likely.

Acquittal and murder 2 are both far less likely imho.

Anything less that murder 3 is going to lead to a lot of violence, I think. And there will be no shortage of Al Sharpton types who will make it worse instead of better.

It’s quite possible that even a severe sentence like murder two (completely unwarranted in my view, based on the evidence) won’t be enough to keep a lot of fires from being set and a lot of windows broken. America is a racial powder keg righ now.

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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