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What’s Ahead For Year-Over-Year Consumer Price Inflation?

Summary:
3.4% Year-Over-Year Coming UpMy expectation is primarily based on easy year-over-year comparisons plus smaller increases in some key indexes. If the price of energy moderates, then things will likely turn lower. Shelter, not energy, is the key component and I strongly disagree with the BLS methodology of using rent instead of home prices. For discussion of what the CPI would look like if actual home prices were used, please see Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can't You See It?Mish

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3.4% Year-Over-Year Coming Up

My expectation is primarily based on easy year-over-year comparisons plus smaller increases in some key indexes. 

If the price of energy moderates, then things will likely turn lower. 

Shelter, not energy, is the key component and I strongly disagree with the BLS methodology of using rent instead of home prices. 

For discussion of what the CPI would look like if actual home prices were used, please see Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can't You See It?

Mish

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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