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Biden’s Progressive Agenda is Dead on Arrival

Summary:
Waiting GameFollowing Biden's win, New York’s Budgetary Waiting Game Continues.The wait-and-see approach has ruled the State Capitol since the spring, when members of the Democratic-controlled state Assembly and Senate enacted a budget that gave Gov. Andrew Cuomo unilateral power to hold back spending if additional federal aid didn’t materialize. So far it hasn’t, although Mr. Cuomo and legislative leaders said the election of Joe Biden as president would make it more likely that a new federal package would include significant funding for state and local governments.“We have a huge deficit and we need a lot of answers, and most of those good answers need to come from our federal government. But everything is on the table,” Ms. Stewart-Cousins, a Democrat from Yonkers, said at a press

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Waiting Game

Following Biden's win, New York’s Budgetary Waiting Game Continues.

The wait-and-see approach has ruled the State Capitol since the spring, when members of the Democratic-controlled state Assembly and Senate enacted a budget that gave Gov. Andrew Cuomo unilateral power to hold back spending if additional federal aid didn’t materialize.

So far it hasn’t, although Mr. Cuomo and legislative leaders said the election of Joe Biden as president would make it more likely that a new federal package would include significant funding for state and local governments.

“We have a huge deficit and we need a lot of answers, and most of those good answers need to come from our federal government. But everything is on the table,” Ms. Stewart-Cousins, a Democrat from Yonkers, said at a press conference.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said Monday that tens of thousands of layoffs are still possible next year. Other cities and counties are developing budgets for 2021 that raise taxes above the state’s 2% cap, a maneuver that requires a vote of 60% of legislators.

Some unions and progressive organizations in New York say state lawmakers should convene immediately and raise taxes, arguing that any federal aid won’t be enough to fix such a large deficit.

Blue Dog Coalition

There are  26 members of the Blue Dog Coalition in the House.

These are Democrats in favor of strong defense and fiscal responsibility. 

House Makeup

Biden's Progressive Agenda is Dead on Arrival

Democrats were widely expected to win seats in the 117th Congress starting January 3. Instead they lost.

The House will be something like 218 Democrats, 210 Republicans, 4 independents and 3 vacant if expectations hold. 

Guess what happens if 16 of 26 Blue Dogs hold firm.

The vote would be 226 to 209. That total would even allow for flips in other places from Republican to Democrat.

Biden's Problems in the Senate 

Democrats need to win both Georgia senate runoffs in January to stand a chance there.

Even then, Democrats will have to hold unanimous (or pick up a Republican Senate vote) for Harris to flip the tie. 

Dead on Arrival

  1. State Bailouts
  2. Tax hikes
  3. Massive climate change proposals 
  4. Single Payer Healthcare

Compromises Coming

It's a certainty that budget deficits will rise on dubious compromises as noted in Here Come the Deficit Hawk Hypocrites.

Although compromises will lead to some gifts to corrupt states like Illinois, New York, and California, the handouts will far, far, short of what the states seek.

In general, the House and Senate makeup will stop the Progressive agenda and mass bailout attempts dead in their tracks.

Trump is out of the way but Biden will not be able to get much of anything done. Many will see both as good things.

Mish

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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