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Grim Air Traffic Shows Need for Airlines to Fire More Employees

Summary:
Air Traffic vs Same Week a Year AgoKey Points Air traffic fell to 4% of normal for the weeks ending April 11 and April 18.Between April 11 and July 11 traffic from 4% of normal to 27% of normal.Between July 11 and September 19 the TSA counts mostly flatlined but the percentage vs a year ago rose to 36% mostly based on easier comparisons.My charts are from TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers.The dates in the chart immediately above are for the weeks ending on those dates (Sunday through Saturday). Permanent Layoffs Soar, and It Will Get WorseOn August 29 I commented Permanent Layoffs Soar, and It Will Get WorseOctober Airline Layoffs ThreatenedThe Delta Announcement is for Pilots Only and that is on top of over 1,800 early retirement acceptances. Allo note that Delta Air Lines said it is still

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Air Traffic vs Same Week a Year Ago

Grim Air Traffic Shows Need for Airlines to Fire More Employees

Key Points 

  • Air traffic fell to 4% of normal for the weeks ending April 11 and April 18.
  • Between April 11 and July 11 traffic from 4% of normal to 27% of normal.
  • Between July 11 and September 19 the TSA counts mostly flatlined but the percentage vs a year ago rose to 36% mostly based on easier comparisons.

My charts are from TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers.

The dates in the chart immediately above are for the weeks ending on those dates (Sunday through Saturday). 

Permanent Layoffs Soar, and It Will Get Worse

On August 29 I commented Permanent Layoffs Soar, and It Will Get Worse

October Airline Layoffs Threatened

The Delta Announcement is for Pilots Only and that is on top of over 1,800 early retirement acceptances.

Allo note that Delta Air Lines said it is still overstaffed even though 17,000 employees are taking buyouts and early retirements.

At a minimum we are talking about a reduction of about 100,000 direct airline jobs.

How Long Will It Take For the Airline Industry to Recover?

Estimates vary widely from 4 to 9 years depending on the source. 

Leeham's best case is 2024 and worse case is 2029. See How Long Will It Take For the Airline Industry to Recover? for details.

Fight for Survival

US airlines are fighting for survival. They have no choice but to shed massive amounts of employees with traffic down about 74% from normal.

Airlines received $25 billion to keep employees on Through September 30. Layoffs begin October 1. 

Republican senators introduced a bill yesterday for $28 billion in aid to airlines.

 In this political environment it is difficult to say what if anything passes.

Mish

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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