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Durable Goods New Orders Spotlight a Manufacturing Slowdown

Summary:
The Census Bureau report on Durable Goods New Orders and Shipments shows growth in new orders has slowed to a crawl.New Orders Month-Over-Month  These month over month comparisons are wildly distorted. But for those interested, the recovery continued for a fourth month with new orders up a tiny 0.4% vs an econoday consensus of 1.5%.Durable Goods New Orders 1993-PresentDurable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year AgoThe above chart is the worst looking yet. It shows a rolling decline in manufacturing that stated mid-2018.  Percent changes month over month for aircraft were so wild I had to remove them to prevent severe chart distortions.One of the best ways to see the covid impact is to look at year-to-date totals on new orders and shipments.Year-to-Date HighlightsNew Orders:

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The Census Bureau report on Durable Goods New Orders and Shipments shows growth in new orders has slowed to a crawl.

New Orders Month-Over-Month 

Durable Goods New Orders Spotlight a Manufacturing Slowdown

These month over month comparisons are wildly distorted. 

But for those interested, the recovery continued for a fourth month with new orders up a tiny 0.4% vs an econoday consensus of 1.5%.

Durable Goods New Orders 1993-Present

Durable Goods New Orders Spotlight a Manufacturing Slowdown

Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago

Durable Goods New Orders Spotlight a Manufacturing Slowdown

The above chart is the worst looking yet. It shows a rolling decline in manufacturing that stated mid-2018. 

Percent changes month over month for aircraft were so wild I had to remove them to prevent severe chart distortions.

One of the best ways to see the covid impact is to look at year-to-date totals on new orders and shipments.

Year-to-Date Highlights

  • New Orders: -11.3%
  • Shipments: -8.6%
  • New Orders Excluding Transportation: -3.0%
  • Shipments Excluding Transportation: -2.8%
  • New Orders Excluding Defense: -12.3%
  • Shipments Excluding Defense: -9.1%

Government military spending added a percentage point to the recovery in durable goods.

Mish

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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