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ADP and Markit Job Reports Are a Huge Warning Signal on the Recovery

Summary:
Wildly Wrong Economic ForecastThe BLS jobs report is this Friday. ADP estimates the economy added 167,000 in July. The Econoday consensus estimate of the ADP forecast was 1,888,000 a miss of over 1.7 Million.ADP was way off in May, calling for a big payroll loss not the big payroll jump that surprised everybody. And though June's call for a big gain was short of the mark, it was at least in the right direction. For July, forecasters see ADP's estimate at 1.888 million.Paychex / Markit Small Business IndexIHS Markit reports Small Business Employment Rebound Moderates in JulyThe latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows that employment growth moderated as new COVID-19 hot spots emerged in the South and West regions of the U.S. The national jobs index slipped 0.24

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Wildly Wrong Economic Forecast

The BLS jobs report is this Friday. ADP estimates the economy added 167,000 in July. 

The Econoday consensus estimate of the ADP forecast was 1,888,000 a miss of over 1.7 Million.

ADP was way off in May, calling for a big payroll loss not the big payroll jump that surprised everybody. And though June's call for a big gain was short of the mark, it was at least in the right direction. For July, forecasters see ADP's estimate at 1.888 million.

Paychex / Markit Small Business Index

IHS Markit reports Small Business Employment Rebound Moderates in July

The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows that employment growth moderated as new COVID-19 hot spots emerged in the South and West regions of the U.S. The national jobs index slipped 0.24 percent in July to 94.59. Hourly earnings growth also slowed slightly to 3.29 percent last month, but increasing hours worked, spurred by the shifting workforce composition, drove weekly earnings growth up to 4.14 percent, with one-month and three-month annualized growth rates topping five percent.

“The jobs index fell slightly in July as a number of states were forced to backtrack on early reopenings,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS Markit.

The rebound in small business job growth has slowed mostly in regions where there has been a recent surge in cases,” said Martin Mucci, Paychex president and CEO. “We’re closely monitoring the status of the next expected stimulus bill for additional relief measures that may be necessary for many small businesses in the months ahead."

ISM Services

We find out the BLS number on Friday. The Econoday consensus is 2,000,000. 

I will take the "Under".

Mish

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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