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Worrisome Covid Mutation Is More Contagious

Summary:
Realist15 minsHi Mish. Happy 4th of July. CV19 is an RNA virus. They tend to mutate frequently but not dramatically. Most mutations are insignificant and not for the betterment of the virus and these quickly die out. Despite high rates of mutation, it is rare to see a mutation change the “mode” of transmission over short periods of time in humans. Though the mutation may change the virus to make it more severe or more easily transmitted, it rarely changes the mode of transmission. As a result, vaccines which target the mode of transmission are usually very effective. Virus mutations rarely change the virus so much as to make the vaccine ineffective. Once the vaccine is out, there is always the small possibility that the virus will mutate to resist the vaccine. However, this has not

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Realist

Hi Mish. Happy 4th of July.

CV19 is an RNA virus. They tend to mutate frequently but not dramatically. Most mutations are insignificant and not for the betterment of the virus and these quickly die out.

Despite high rates of mutation, it is rare to see a mutation change the “mode” of transmission over short periods of time in humans. Though the mutation may change the virus to make it more severe or more easily transmitted, it rarely changes the mode of transmission.

As a result, vaccines which target the mode of transmission are usually very effective. Virus mutations rarely change the virus so much as to make the vaccine ineffective.

Once the vaccine is out, there is always the small possibility that the virus will mutate to resist the vaccine. However, this has not happened with other RNA vaccines for measles, mumps and yellow fever.

That is why I am confident that there will be several vaccines available in 2021 that will provide some degree of effectiveness. Taken together, they will likely provide significant protection for most people. The length of protection will be key. I suspect early vaccines will be needed to be taken annually, but hopefully a vaccine will eventually emerge that will provide multiple years of protection.

Till then, it is so important to wear a mask, social distance, avoid large crowds, clean and sanitize, and test and trace. That is how other countries have tamed the virus, allowing them to open up their economies, while they wait for a vaccine.

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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