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Covid-19 Update and Tweets of the Day

Summary:
DBG848922 hrsIn the second week of April, we tested about 100K people. Of those tested, about 15% of them were positive (14,975). Since April, the number of those tested has been rising but the percentage of positive results has gone down (with a notable exception in the 3rd and 4th week of April. Since mid-May, the percentage of positive results has fluctuated between 6 and 9%. The last week of June, we tested nearly 2,000,000. Of those tested, 8.6% of them were positive (162,750) Clearly, the percentage of positive results has gone down while the number of positive results is going up because we are testing 10x more people than we were in early April. Also in April and May, we were only testing those who actually had real symptoms that were causing them enough problems that they had to

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DBG8489

In the second week of April, we tested about 100K people. Of those tested, about 15% of them were positive (14,975).

Since April, the number of those tested has been rising but the percentage of positive results has gone down (with a notable exception in the 3rd and 4th week of April. Since mid-May, the percentage of positive results has fluctuated between 6 and 9%.

The last week of June, we tested nearly 2,000,000. Of those tested, 8.6% of them were positive (162,750)

Clearly, the percentage of positive results has gone down while the number of positive results is going up because we are testing 10x more people than we were in early April.

Also in April and May, we were only testing those who actually had real symptoms that were causing them enough problems that they had to go to the hospital. Now we are testing anyone who goes to a testing center and says they believe they have symptoms.

Why are we testing more? Because we can. Because that's what everyone wanted. That's what everyone demanded. If we were still testing only those with actual, verifiable symptoms, the number of "cases" - which should really be the number of "positive test results" unless the actual presence of symptoms can be verified - would be dropping in all likelihood.

Instead, we are using bad data that is being misread and misused by many and calling every positive test result a new "case" without regard to the presence of symptoms or any real verification of the type or accuracy of the tests themselves.

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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