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Death Certificates Suggest Covid-19 Deaths Way Undercounted

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BaronAsh2 hrsStatistics are always tricky beasts, and the ones flying around viz. CV19 are no exception, especially given how some show clear over-counting and others show clear under-counting. I don't believe any of them because I don't believe the source data has consistent enough standards and definitions. One set of data out of Italy - with the same caveats of course - is telling, imo, namely the percentage of people dying with C19 and also WITHOUT co-morbidities. Now one can argue that without the covid those with one co-morbidity might have made it, I suppose, but that means the word 'morbidity' is being discounted (though again: who gets to define these things in the first place?). But generally speaking, if these numbers are generally correct - as I suspect is the case given the

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BaronAsh

Statistics are always tricky beasts, and the ones flying around viz. CV19 are no exception, especially given how some show clear over-counting and others show clear under-counting. I don't believe any of them because I don't believe the source data has consistent enough standards and definitions.

One set of data out of Italy - with the same caveats of course - is telling, imo, namely the percentage of people dying with C19 and also WITHOUT co-morbidities. Now one can argue that without the covid those with one co-morbidity might have made it, I suppose, but that means the word 'morbidity' is being discounted (though again: who gets to define these things in the first place?). But generally speaking, if these numbers are generally correct - as I suspect is the case given the very high average age of those dying the past few months in Italy - it means that the sort of conclusions Mish is pushing are mathematically absurd.

If it is more or less accurate that only 3.9% of those dying of CV have NO co-morbidities, then it is highly unlikely that CV is contributing much more than 10-20% of extra deaths this year, indeed one might argue it has lowered death rates because of reduction of car crashes, workplace accidents, iatrogenic cock-ups in hospitals and clinics and so forth.

Now: if this 3,9% number was more like 20-30%, which is what you would suspect from all the press on this, then Mish would have a much stronger point. But given the virus inability to strike down more than 1 in 25 who are not already very ill, I don't think this qualifies as a pandemic at all, any more than a typical flu which also goes around the world in 80 days infecting tens of millions, killing of about 0.1-2% (1-2,000 per million), which is thus far more than what CV has done.

As to statistics, look at this doozy: yesterday Sweden's death per million count doubled. Of course this has nothing to do with all the press recently praising or vilifying them. Still, that's a huge statistical sea-change. I haven't read a single story noticing this:

Went from 4.46 to 8.71. That sort of leap indicates that the numbers are being tweaked or from very questionable sources or something. I feel that most of the figures being bandied about are no less suspect. But even if they are right, 8.71 deaths per million is under 0.01% (1000), the typical flu level. Basic Math. (Unless I am misinterpreting the 8.71 nr somehow, but if so it's probably 871 not 8,710).

One thing is clear: the lockdown has been an economic disaster and the number of deaths and illnesses doesn't come close to justifying it. It's very hard to admit when you have made a mistake. Trump for sure will never admit it and keeps touting the entirely ridiculous 2,000,000 death figure he was briefed by his corrupt Big Pharma shills using the same study that spooked Boris into the same sort of draconian economy-killing blunder (though he might be trolling every time he does it!). They blew it. And they blew it by listening overmuch to Garbage-In-Garbage-Out spreadsheet models which can tell you anything you want if you know how to tweak them, leave out the right variables, exponentially exaggerate other ones until you get the hockey stick or rocket to moon shape that you want.

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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