Thursday , April 9 2020
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Cuomo to Trump “You Pick the 26,000 Who Will Die”

Summary:
Realist16 hrsJc52 is partially correct. The US is better prepared than any other country. You are rated #1 in the Global Health Security index. Korea is #9 by comparison. That doesn’t matter much, if you ignore all the early warnings, and the botch your eventual response. For example, the US does have a lot of ventilators. They need to get to New York. Plus more beds, ppe, and health care workers. Someone needs to coordinate to get them to New York. For the rest of the country: If you ask an infectious disease expert, he would recommend: Step 1: isolate as close to 100% of the population as possible for 3 weeks. Step 2: identify any isolated people who develop symptoms; test them; monitor them and retest if necessary; if symptoms worsen, hospitalize them; extend the isolation period for

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Realist

Jc52 is partially correct. The US is better prepared than any other country. You are rated #1 in the Global Health Security index. Korea is #9 by comparison.

That doesn’t matter much, if you ignore all the early warnings, and the botch your eventual response. For example, the US does have a lot of ventilators. They need to get to New York.

Plus more beds, ppe, and health care workers. Someone needs to coordinate to get them to New York.

For the rest of the country:

If you ask an infectious disease expert, he would recommend:

Step 1: isolate as close to 100% of the population as possible for 3 weeks.

Step 2: identify any isolated people who develop symptoms; test them; monitor them and retest if necessary; if symptoms worsen, hospitalize them; extend the isolation period for those who shared accommodation with the infected; test and monitor them

Step 3: after 3 weeks, providing the health care system is not overwhelmed by cases, all isolated people without symptoms can be considered virus free and allowed out of isolation; however, it is important to continue social distancing, hand washing, etc as a precaution, as there are always outliers; however, if the health care system is overwhelmed, you must extend isolation until such time as it is no longer overwhelmed

Step 4: once isolation is over, it will be important to carefully monitor for any new cases; any new cases must be traced back quickly to find others at risk; if you can get to this stage you can easily manage isolated cases because now you are actively looking for them

Step 5: The problem is not yet “solved”, but it is now managed. Meanwhile, treatments and vaccines can be developed over the coming months and years. Once vaccines and natural immunities spread, the problem is effectively contained. (Like measles, it will be difficult to eradicate.)

There is one crucial thing that is required for this standard practice to be successful: a population that is willing to follow the rules of isolation, social distancing, washing hands etc

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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