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Coronavirus Quarantines: How Long Should They Be?

Summary:
China's Conflicting Mission About 700 million Chinese have not gone to work for weeks. China now want them back on the job. But China's effort to Restart the Economy While Fighting Outbreak poses many new questions. Premier Li Keqiang, the country’s No. 2 official, and the country’s cabinet called for major construction projects to begin across the country as soon as possible. State-owned enterprises were told to cut rents. Banks were ordered to keep interest rates low. City governments were told to make sure that workers who went home for the Lunar New Year holiday could reach their jobs. The two most powerful political bodies in China — the Standing Committee of the Communist Party Politburo and the government’s cabinet of ministers — each issued similar orders. Both groups produced

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China's Conflicting Mission

About 700 million Chinese have not gone to work for weeks. China now want them back on the job.

But China's effort to Restart the Economy While Fighting Outbreak poses many new questions.

Premier Li Keqiang, the country’s No. 2 official, and the country’s cabinet called for major construction projects to begin across the country as soon as possible. State-owned enterprises were told to cut rents. Banks were ordered to keep interest rates low. City governments were told to make sure that workers who went home for the Lunar New Year holiday could reach their jobs.

The two most powerful political bodies in China — the Standing Committee of the Communist Party Politburo and the government’s cabinet of ministers — each issued similar orders. Both groups produced hints of the fairly broad stimulus program that many economists expect soon.

None of the announcements directly addressed the difficult balancing act that China now faces: how to put more than 700 million workers back on the job without creating conditions that could allow the virus to spread.

Boeing Sounds Alarm About Virus Impact

France24 reports Boeing Sounds Alarm About Virus Impact on Aviation

Boeing issued a stark warning Wednesday about the impact of the deadly coronavirus outbreak, saying there was "no question" it would hammer the aviation industry and the broader economy.

"You have several global airlines that have limited their traffic in and out of China, that's revenue," said Ihssane Mounir, the US plane maker's senior vice president of commercial global sales and marketing.

"You have business trips not happening, you have cargo not going in and out.

"It will have an impact on the economy, it will have an impact on revenues, it will have an impact on these carriers... there's no question about it."

Cancelled Flights

Non-China Infections Update

Biggest Reason for Declining Cases is Change in Definition

Accuracy of Tests in Question

Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing

Chris Martenson reports Coronavirus: Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing

Jumping the Gun?

The surest way to spread the disease is to send 700 million potential carries back to work in an effort to jumpstart the economy.

Here are a couple of image clips from the video.

Key Question

The above clip refers to the fact that Japan was unable to test all the people on a quarantined cruise ship.

Japan Confirms 39 New Virus Cases, 174 Total On Cruise Ship

The AP reports Japan Confirms 39 New Virus Cases, 174 Total On Cruise Ship

Here's the interesting part: "The virus was confirmed in a official who participated in the initial quarantine checks the night the ship returned to Yokohama Port near Tokyo on Feb. 3. The quarantine official is being treated in the hospital."

Japan is reconsidering the need to test everyone. Good idea. But if Japan is struggling with testing 3,800 what the heck is going on in China?

The obvious solution is to change the definitions so there are fewer cases.

New Key Questions

  1. But how long will the ship quarantine now need to be?
  2. 24 days? Starting when?
  3. Just how crazy is it to send people back to work with so many similar questions in play?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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