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Containment Fails: Coronavirus Tweets of the Day

Summary:
Going back to this data set: The current reading on the Diamond Princess is 705 cases (about 20% of the ships population). 4 deaths (about 0.5% of the people who got ill). 36 in "serious condition"(death plus serious is about 6% of the population that got ill). 10 reported as "recovered". OK, in a mythical country of 300 million, 20% falling ill would be 60 million. Of that 60 million, 3.6 million would get seriously ill--requiring some form of medical intervention. And if the medical care is provided as optimally as for the Diamond Princess people, only 300,000 deaths would occur. That is the best case scenario based on the only experiment-like set of data that we have.

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Going back to this data set: The current reading on the Diamond Princess is 705 cases (about 20% of the ships population). 4 deaths (about 0.5% of the people who got ill). 36 in "serious condition"(death plus serious is about 6% of the population that got ill). 10 reported as "recovered".

OK, in a mythical country of 300 million, 20% falling ill would be 60 million.

Of that 60 million, 3.6 million would get seriously ill--requiring some form of medical intervention. And if the medical care is provided as optimally as for the Diamond Princess people, only 300,000 deaths would occur.

That is the best case scenario based on the only experiment-like set of data that we have.

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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