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No CNN, Bernie Sanders Is Not in the Lead

Summary:
CNN is discussing a Bernie surge. It's fiction. Hello CNN, Surge? What Surge? That CNN Tweet yesterday caught my eye. In response, I commented: Excuse me for asking, but is there any particular reason to believe CNN is right and 5 other pollsters wrong? Curiously, Real Clear Politics listed CNN at the top despite the fact there were two newer polls. What's up with that? CNN Outlier Regardless of order presented, CNN is the outlier. The CNN Poll was conducted by SRSS. The report is 69 pages long. In contrast, the YouGov Poll is a far more detailed 307 pages. YouGov Clip Page 96 SSRS Clip Page 9 SSRS Weights? Notice how You-Gov gathered and reported on stats by age, race, gender, income group, and national region. There is no indication SSRS did anything similar, or if they did, weighted

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CNN is discussing a Bernie surge. It's fiction.

Hello CNN, Surge? What Surge?

That CNN Tweet yesterday caught my eye.

In response, I commented: Excuse me for asking, but is there any particular reason to believe CNN is right and 5 other pollsters wrong?

Curiously, Real Clear Politics listed CNN at the top despite the fact there were two newer polls. What's up with that?

CNN Outlier

Regardless of order presented, CNN is the outlier.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SRSS. The report is 69 pages long.

In contrast, the YouGov Poll is a far more detailed 307 pages.

YouGov Clip Page 96

SSRS Clip Page 9

SSRS Weights?

Notice how You-Gov gathered and reported on stats by age, race, gender, income group, and national region.

There is no indication SSRS did anything similar, or if they did, weighted things properly.

One of Two Things

  1. The CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash
  2. All the other polls are complete trash

Excluding CNN, Biden has remarkably consistent numbers as follows: 28, 30, 29, 32, 29.

In contrast, support for Warren and Sanders is extremely inconsistent between pollsters, but with CNN having the highest total.

Only by diving into the polls can one spot potential errors.

Take your pick, but I strongly suggest the CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash and should be discarded entirely.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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