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ISM NMI – Production Growth Slows, Orders Pick Up

Summary:
In contrast to the ISM manufacturing report, the ISM non-manufacturing report is a mixed bad. The lead chart is from the Non-Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business® for November. Key Points The overall index fell slightly from 54.7 to 53.9. Production took a dive from 57.1 to 51.6. New Orders rose from 55.6 to 57.1. Order backlog, is down for the second month. So unless new orders keep pouring in businesses will not be able to rely on the strength of backlogs to keep things humming. Word about Diffusion Indexes These reports are skewed by the fact that only direction, not size matters. For example, a firm hiring 3 workers will offer a firm firing 350 workers.This construct applies to all of the line items, not just employment. ISM manufacturing For manufacturing discussion, please see

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In contrast to the ISM manufacturing report, the ISM non-manufacturing report is a mixed bad.

The lead chart is from the Non-Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business® for November.

Key Points

  • The overall index fell slightly from 54.7 to 53.9.
  • Production took a dive from 57.1 to 51.6.
  • New Orders rose from 55.6 to 57.1.

Order backlog, is down for the second month. So unless new orders keep pouring in businesses will not be able to rely on the strength of backlogs to keep things humming.

Word about Diffusion Indexes

These reports are skewed by the fact that only direction, not size matters.

For example, a firm hiring 3 workers will offer a firm firing 350 workers.This construct applies to all of the line items, not just employment.

ISM manufacturing

For manufacturing discussion, please see Another Recession Warning: ISM Contracts 4th Month.

Also note Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month.

Trump's trade policies have been an absolute disaster and have contributed to these slowdowns.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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