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Tories Take Crushing Lead in Latest Polls

Summary:
The latest polls show increasing leads for the Tories. The trends by pollster are increasingly favorable as well. Tories have gained ground In all the recent polls except for BMG which remained the same between polls, But is the lead 6, 8, or 17? That's how wide the difference are but the Survation poll at 6% is getting rather stale. In contrast, the three most recent poll spreads by Deltapoll, YouGov, and Opinium are 15%, 17%, and 16% respectively. YouGov Spotlight YouGov does the most polls in general, and it also offers some regional breakdown that other pollsters generally don't. YouGov Tory Spread by Date and Region For the 2017 actuals, I used 2017 United Kingdom general election in England UK Election 2017 - England Only Here are the 2017 United Kingdom General Election results.

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The latest polls show increasing leads for the Tories. The trends by pollster are increasingly favorable as well.

Tories have gained ground In all the recent polls except for BMG which remained the same between polls,

But is the lead 6, 8, or 17? That's how wide the difference are but the Survation poll at 6% is getting rather stale.

In contrast, the three most recent poll spreads by Deltapoll, YouGov, and Opinium are 15%, 17%, and 16% respectively.

YouGov Spotlight

YouGov does the most polls in general, and it also offers some regional breakdown that other pollsters generally don't.

YouGov Tory Spread by Date and Region

For the 2017 actuals, I used 2017 United Kingdom general election in England

UK Election 2017 - England Only

Here are the 2017 United Kingdom General Election results.

2017 General Election Results

Spreads Now vs 2017 Election

Take your pick. The spread between the Tories and Labour was 2.4 percentage points or 3.5 percentage points.

The most current spreads are in the mid-teens.

Spreads Now vs 2017 Trends

But But But UK Polls Are Notoriously Bad

None of this matters to my avid Remainer friends because everyone knows that UK polls are notoriously bad, especially YouGov.

Precise quotes

  • "Well, forget the polls, UK polls are garbage."
  • " he trouble with Polls in the UK is that they are useless."

Let's explore that line of thought.

YouGov Election Model vs. Result

YouGov Final Poll vs Result

  • YouGov correctly called for a Hung Parliament
  • YouGov underestimated Tories by 1.5 PP
  • YouGov underestimated Labour by 3.0 PP

YouGov's expected 4.0 PP lead was actually 2.5 PP. That's your "notoriously bad" result.

Those counting on "notoriously bad" results to save the day, need something far more notorious given that YouGov has the Tories with a 17-point lead.

What About London?

I am glad you asked.

YouGov Four Most Recent London Breakouts

​In the 2017 election the Tories lost London by a whopping 21.4 percentage points.

In the latest poll, the Tories are down by a measly 1.0 percentage point. The poll count for London is likely thin, but still!

Also note my projections by other pollsters show Labour Losing Ground In Last Two Weeks even before the three new polls today.

My Current London Estimate

  • Tory: 32 (+11)
  • Labour: 33 (-16)
  • Lib Dem: 8 (+5)

If the current polls are in the ballpark, Tories stand to pick up over 10 seats in London and monstrous numbers in the "Rest of the South" and "Wales Midlands".

Oh, wait, I almost forgot. Throw all of this away. The polls are notoriously flawed, garbage, and in fact, totally useless.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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