Tuesday , December 10 2019
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Labour Gaining at Expense of Liberal Democrats

Summary:
UK Polls are tightening. Labour picked up support at expense of Liberal Democrats and undecided voters. There is a definite tightening in the UK Polls for the election on December 12. Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster That table suggests Labour has picked up nearly a point from the Tories, a small fraction from the Liberal Democrats and presumably the rest from undecided voters and new voter registrations. However, note the Deltapoll outlier. It's highly unlikely the Liberal Democrats picked up 5 percentage points on Nov 23 from the prior polls back on November 16. And speaking of which, November 16 is more than a bit stale. Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster Excluding Deltapoll If we exclude Deltapoll we get a better approximation of what's happening. That set of data points suggests

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UK Polls are tightening. Labour picked up support at expense of Liberal Democrats and undecided voters.

There is a definite tightening in the UK Polls for the election on December 12.

Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster

That table suggests Labour has picked up nearly a point from the Tories, a small fraction from the Liberal Democrats and presumably the rest from undecided voters and new voter registrations.

However, note the Deltapoll outlier.

It's highly unlikely the Liberal Democrats picked up 5 percentage points on Nov 23 from the prior polls back on November 16.

And speaking of which, November 16 is more than a bit stale.

Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster Excluding Deltapoll

If we exclude Deltapoll we get a better approximation of what's happening.

That set of data points suggests Labour picked up a point from the Liberal democrats, 0.67 percentage points from the Tories, and 0.83 percentage points from undecided voters or newly registered voters.

I think we can do a bit better yet.

Most Recent 8 Polls

The last 8 polls show a 3.0 percentage point gain for Labour with 2.25 PP coming from the Liberal Democrats, 0.50 PP from the Tories and the rest from undecided or new voters.

Last Three Polls

  1. Panelbase was on Nov-27-28, Spread 8 PP
  2. ComRes was on Nov 25-26, Spread 7 PP
  3. YouGov was on Nov 25-26, Spread 11 PP

Voter registration ended November 26.

Those polls largely reflect any last minute surge in voters.

Not About Brexit

On November 26, Telegraph writer Philip Johnston wrote The big issue at this election isn't Brexit – it's Jeremy Corbyn

Does that sound familiar?

It should.

On November 19, I proposed Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit

This was my opening comment "This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it's primarily about Corbyn."

Last Desperate Act

Also consider Jeremy Corbyn Goes for Broke With Last Desperate Act, US Democrats Take Note

Synopsis

The support for the Tories seems solid. The question is whether or not the Liberal Democrats continue their collapse and whether Labour continues to pick up undecided.

Of course, there is also a turnout issue.

We are no longer in blowout territory but 8 PP would likely give the Tories a comfortable majority.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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