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Rate Cut Odds Dip Below 50% from 92% a Week Ago

Summary:
The market has given the Fed a free swing as rate cut odds dip to 47%. My how things change. A month ago there was allegedly a 10%% chance of a rate cut tomorrow with an additional 22.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Last week there was a 92.3% chance of a single cut. Yesterday there was a 62.3% chance of a cut. Today there is only a 47.3% chance of a cut. Tomorrow we see. Questions of the Day Rate Cut on the 18th? Did this sudden change amplify today's liquidity crisis? Rate Cut Question ​ Liquidity Crisis Question ​ For discussion, please see US Overnight Interest Rate Surges to 10%, Fed Injects Emergency Billion. Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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The market has given the Fed a free swing as rate cut odds dip to 47%.

My how things change.

  • A month ago there was allegedly a 10%% chance of a rate cut tomorrow with an additional 22.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
  • Last week there was a 92.3% chance of a single cut.
  • Yesterday there was a 62.3% chance of a cut.
  • Today there is only a 47.3% chance of a cut.

Tomorrow we see.

Questions of the Day

  1. Rate Cut on the 18th?
  2. Did this sudden change amplify today's liquidity crisis?

Rate Cut Question

Liquidity Crisis Question

For discussion, please see US Overnight Interest Rate Surges to 10%, Fed Injects Emergency $75 Billion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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