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Existing Home Sales Rise More Than Expected, Return to 2016-2017 Levels

Summary:
Existing home were better than expected in August. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun credits falling interest rates. Better Than Expected 2018's Home Sales Slump Erased Mortgage News Daily reports 2018's Home Sales Slump Now Fully Erased While the increase wasn't as strong as in July, last month's existing home sales posted a second straight month of gains and, as previously, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) credited falling interest rates. Sales of previously owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments were up 1.3 percent compared to July when sales rose 2.5 percent. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million units was 2.6 percent higher than the August 2018 pace of 5.35 million. The increase was felt in three of the four

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Existing home were better than expected in August. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun credits falling interest rates.

Better Than Expected

2018's Home Sales Slump Erased

Mortgage News Daily reports 2018's Home Sales Slump Now Fully Erased

While the increase wasn't as strong as in July, last month's existing home sales posted a second straight month of gains and, as previously, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) credited falling interest rates. Sales of previously owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments were up 1.3 percent compared to July when sales rose 2.5 percent. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million units was 2.6 percent higher than the August 2018 pace of 5.35 million. The increase was felt in three of the four major regions while the West continues to demonstrate some weakness.

The month's results were better than predicted. Analysts polled by Econoday had expected them to come in at an annual rate of 5.30 to 5.42 million with a consensus of 5.38 million.

Single-family home sales rose from 4.84 million in July to 4.90 million in August, a 1.2 percent gain and 2.9 percent above the August 2018 rate. Existing condo sales rose 1.7 percent from July to 590,000 annual units, largely unchanged from the previous August.

Yun criticized the quarter point cut in the Fed Funds rate made by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. "[The Fed] should have been bolder and made a deeper rate cut, given current low inflation rates," he said. "The housing sector has been broadly underperforming but there is huge upward potential there that will help our overall economy grow."

Housing Bubble Continues

  • Northeast: Sales in the Northeast increased 7.6 percent from July to an annual rate of 710,000 units, 1.4 percent higher than in August 2018. The median price fell 0.3 percent on an annual basis to $303,500.
  • Midwest: Existing-home sales grew 3.1 percent in the Midwest to an annual rate of 1.31 million, topping sales from a year earlier by 2.3 percent. The median price jumped 6.6 percent to $220,000.
  • South: In the South there was a gain of 0.9 percent in sales to a rate of 2.33 million and sales were 3.6 percent higher year-over-year. The median price of $240,300 was a 5.4 percent annual increase.
  • West: While sales remained 1.8 percent higher on an annual basis, the West was an outlier in August. Existing home sales declined 3.4 percent to 1.14 million. Prices, however, continued their strong appreciation, rising 5.7 percent to $415,900.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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