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Increasing Odds of a Bad Brexit Deal as Liberal Democrats Leap Ahead of Labour

Summary:
The latest UK polls place the Liberal Democrats ahead of labour. It's not all what it seems. Lib Dem Leapfrog ​ Caution Advised This is just one poll. It is in contrast to another recent poll. ​ Clear Position Caution aside, the poll result is not exactly surprising. Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson promises a clear position: Overturn Article 50 and stay in the EU. In contrast, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn promises a referendum. Corbyn proposes a referendum in which voters decide to remain or let him negotiate a customs union. Calculated Moves This all seems like political madness, but it is a calculated move by both Corbyn and Swinson. Swinson wants an election before there is a result. If she can achieve that, Labour will get crushed by its wishy washy policy. But if there is a

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The latest UK polls place the Liberal Democrats ahead of labour. It's not all what it seems.

Lib Dem Leapfrog

Caution Advised

This is just one poll.

It is in contrast to another recent poll.

Clear Position

Caution aside, the poll result is not exactly surprising.

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson promises a clear position: Overturn Article 50 and stay in the EU.

In contrast, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn promises a referendum.

Corbyn proposes a referendum in which voters decide to remain or let him negotiate a customs union.

Calculated Moves

This all seems like political madness, but it is a calculated move by both Corbyn and Swinson.

  1. Swinson wants an election before there is a result. If she can achieve that, Labour will get crushed by its wishy washy policy. But if there is a result before the election the platform of Remain is totally useless.
  2. On the other hand, Corbyn wants a result, any result, before there is an election.
  3. The problem for both Corbyn and Swinson is they do not want an election to be to the advantage of Boris Johnson.

Bad Deal Increasingly Likely

Corbyn may very well support a deal, any deal, just to prevent an election blowout.

I suspect he would even opt for Theresa May's inept deal, flat out as is.

Magic Increasingly Likely

A magic solution, despite all the protestations from the EU regarding the backstop seems increasingly likely.

It would solve a problem for Johnson (who by the way would be right about getting a deal), and it would give Labour a one-on-one go at Johnson.

Why?

Because any solution, no matter what, takes out both the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.

Flies in the Ointment

One problem with what I just proposed is the EU is increasingly belligerent. And it's obvious to the UK.

Corbyn will of course grant a "free vote". He can hardly be for a people's choice and then not grant MPs the right to vote as they please. Labour might not go along.

Theresa May's deal has been defeated three times already.

But if MPs are hell bent on stopping "No Deal" to the point of getting any deal, no matter bad, then a bad deal will be the result.

Synopsis

  1. Labour wants to sidetrack the Liberal Democrats and vice versa.
  2. Corbyn does not really want a referendum. He would get killed by one.
  3. Swinson's claim that her number one priority is to stop No Deal is a lie. Her number one priority is to sink Labour.
  4. The cross section of the above points keeps no deal in play despite all sides claiming they want a deal.

Brexit Guaranteed

Brexit, by some definition, is pretty much guaranteed.

But as I have stated before, Remain is far better than a bad deal.

Later today, the UK supreme court will rule on prorogation. The resolution of the above points will have a far greater impact on a deal (or no deal) than the court decision.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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