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Tick Tock: Merkel Gives UK 30 Days to Solve Brexit

Summary:
Boris Johnson met Angela Merkel today. She gave Johnson 30 days to do the impossible. Tick Tock German Chancellor Angela Merkel Gives Boris Johnson 30 Days to Come Up With Solution to Backstop. During a friendly press conference on his first overseas visit as PM, which was notable for the absence of any comments from Johnson or Angela Merkel critical of each other’s Brexit positions, Merkel at one point appeared to set Johnson a 30 day deadline. She said that the backstop had always been a “fallback position” and would only come into effect if no other solution could be agreed that would protect the “integrity of the single market”. She went on: "If one is able to solve this conundrum, if one finds this solution, we said we would probably find it in the next two years to come but we can

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Boris Johnson met Angela Merkel today. She gave Johnson 30 days to do the impossible.

Tick Tock

German Chancellor Angela Merkel Gives Boris Johnson 30 Days to Come Up With Solution to Backstop.

During a friendly press conference on his first overseas visit as PM, which was notable for the absence of any comments from Johnson or Angela Merkel critical of each other’s Brexit positions, Merkel at one point appeared to set Johnson a 30 day deadline. She said that the backstop had always been a “fallback position” and would only come into effect if no other solution could be agreed that would protect the “integrity of the single market”. She went on:

"If one is able to solve this conundrum, if one finds this solution, we said we would probably find it in the next two years to come but we can also maybe find it in the next 30 days to come. Then we are one step further in the right direction and we have to obviously put our all into this."

Thank you Angela Merkel

This plays straight into Boris Johnson's hands.

BJ can waste 30 day doing nothing while professing to do all he can to reach a deal.

Deal Screams

Nigel Farage will scream about BJ wanting a deal, but it should be clear BJ does not want a deal.

Rather, BJ wants to make it look like he wants a deal so that Tory Remainers don't revolt.

Whole Lotta Pretendin'

Of course, the Tory Remainers understand that BJ does not want a deal, but the beauty is they can pretend that he does. Similarly, all the Remainers pretend they will do "everything" to stop "no deal"

Everything (Except That)

  1. Corbyn will do "everything we can to stop no deal" except back some other candidate as temporary PM.
  2. The Liberal Democrats will do "everything we can to stop no deal" except back Corbyn.
  3. The Torie Remainers will do "everything to stop no deal" as long as it is a Tory who becomes the temporary PM.

Clearly, everything does not mean what it used to.

Expect a Johnson Blowout Election Win

The amusing result of all this pretending will be a Johnson Blowout Election Win.

After mid-September (my calculus says September 9), it will be mathematically impossible to stop No Deal. Indeed, it may be mathematically impossible already unless there is an immediate move on September 3 to oust BJ.

My extremely liberal September 9 date allows for an election on a day other than Thursday, well outside the norm.

September 3 is the day parliament returns from recess.

Thirty days from now would be September 20.

Oops. Time will have expired.

Ireland Backstop Serious Question: Who Will Enforce It? Mexico?

This "insurance" position of the EU is totally laughable.

Meaningful Positions

  1. Corbyn's only meaningful opinion is that he wants to be Prime Minister. He does not really give a damn about stopping no deal.
  2. Likewise, the only meaningful position of the Tory Remainers at this point is that they do not want to be outed from the Party, thereby losing their cushy Parliament job.
  3. A similar setup applies to the Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson. She wants to become PM but will settle for destroying Corbyn so that she can become the leader of the opposition.

Motion of No Confidence Timeline

Corbyn keeps repeating he will call for a motion of no confidence "when the time is right".

When the heck is that?

I propose, possibly never. If he does not do so on September 3 or 4, I do believe it will either be never or too late to matter in any conceivable circumstance.

If Corbyn does not trigger a vote (which may not succeed if he does), BJ will call for elections himself.

Given that a majority in parliament is required, It would be a real hoot if Corbyn objected to elections.

Conclusions

  • Expect an election on October 31 or perhaps one week later, November 7.
  • Brexit will have been delivered
  • Labour will get crushed in the election as the Brexit Party supporters return to BJ

Happy Halloween

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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