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Startling Tory Poll and Leadership Challenge Shrinkage

Summary:
A You-Gov Poll shows some shocking preferences. In the non-news of the day, the Tory leadership challenge is down to 5. Committed to Brexit A YouGov Poll shows the Tory party wants Brexit even if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK. The only scenario the party fears is Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. However, nearly four in ten (39%) are so committed to Brexit that they would want to see it brought about even if it brought their party’s nemesis came to power. The next two slides explain the first. Delivering Brexit Real Threat Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It) The YouGov poll released today supports my call yesterday: Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It) Another One Bites the Dust Meaningless Events The

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A You-Gov Poll shows some shocking preferences. In the non-news of the day, the Tory leadership challenge is down to 5.

Committed to Brexit

A YouGov Poll shows the Tory party wants Brexit even if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK.

The only scenario the party fears is Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. However, nearly four in ten (39%) are so committed to Brexit that they would want to see it brought about even if it brought their party’s nemesis came to power.

The next two slides explain the first.

Delivering Brexit

Real Threat

Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It)

The YouGov poll released today supports my call yesterday: Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It)

Another One Bites the Dust

Meaningless Events

The press is all gaga over the surge of Stewart. It's meaningless.

Great Remainer Hope

Stewart is the "Great Remainer" hope.

It's hopeless.

It is the party membership, not Tory MPs, who decides.

The YouGov polls are very clear on this issue.

What Does Johnson Want?

That is the question I asked previously and there still is no guaranteed answer.

Four Possibilities

  1. If Johnson's intent is to deliver a hard-Brexit while avoiding a motion of no-confidence, he succeeded.
  2. If Johnson's intent is to deliver a repackaged Theresa May deal, he succeeded.
  3. If Johnson's intent is genuinely to get the EU to negotiate something beyond May's deal, willing to walk away if he doesn't, he succeeded
  4. If Johnson genuinely doesn't know, he successfully bought himself time.

My Vote - Door Three

My votes, in order, are 3, 4, and tossup.

I might be wrong, but I am going by what Johnson says even though he has not been consistent.

Moreover, the polls are clear. The party wants Brexit and wants it on Oct 31.

Theresa's May's deal, however rehashed, is simply not Brexit.

Managed WTO Deal

It is in the EU's best interest as well as the UK's best interest for a Managed WTO Deal to happen, if that is what Johnson wants (and that is what he should want).

By managed deal, I mean a WTO Brexit with the EU agreeing to some temporary backstop measures or "unicorn" technical solutions to smooth things out in return for Johnson agreeing to pay the Brexit breakup fee and agreeing to legal status for EU citizens living in the UK.

I am taking Johnson at his word, an admittedly risky stance for any politician, but it is also what the Tory membership indicates that it wants.

Either way, the leadership challenge is over. Johnson is in the driver's seat.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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