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Projected US Budget Deficit Lie in Four Pictures

Summary:
Nearly every year, the national debt rises more than the deficit. The picture is guaranteed to get worse. Fantasyland Thinking Please recall Trump's preposterous claim that he will use tariffs to pay down the national debt. That is truly Fantasyland thinking. In fact, it is so preposterous, one has to wonder if it is a purposeful lie. Then again, we are talking about Trump, so perhaps he does believe it. Projections vs Reality In nearly all cases, the increase in national debt is way higher than projected deficits. Why? Because the projected deficit does not include all of the amount owed to the Social Security Trust Fund. That amount is called off-budget. But when the calendar year rolls over, the difference magically appears on the balance sheet as actual debt. Actual and Projected Debt

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Nearly every year, the national debt rises more than the deficit. The picture is guaranteed to get worse.

Fantasyland Thinking

Please recall Trump's preposterous claim that he will use tariffs to pay down the national debt.

That is truly Fantasyland thinking. In fact, it is so preposterous, one has to wonder if it is a purposeful lie. Then again, we are talking about Trump, so perhaps he does believe it.

Projections vs Reality

In nearly all cases, the increase in national debt is way higher than projected deficits. Why?

Because the projected deficit does not include all of the amount owed to the Social Security Trust Fund. That amount is called off-budget. But when the calendar year rolls over, the difference magically appears on the balance sheet as actual debt.

Actual and Projected Debt

Projected Deficits vs Projected Increases in Debt

​That picture is where lie meets reality. Let's total it up.

Projected Deficits vs Projected Increases in Debt Totals Through 2023

The total projected debt increase for 2018-2023 is $6.826 trillion.

The total projected deficit increase for 2018-2023 is $5.352 trillion.

Deficit Scam

Excluding Social Security from the deficit is an accounting scam.

The cumulative deficit lie for the years 2018-2023 is $1.473 trillion.

Expect Much Worse

The story is even much worse. Those numbers assume no recession through 2023.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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