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GDP Pot Shot on Feb 28, Not All Inputs Finalized

Summary:
The GDP report on Feb 28 will be a combined first and second estimate. It appears to be a kludge. Bloomberg offers this U.S. Shutdown Update. I put the releases in date order. ​Retail Sales for December, Feb 14: Retail sales for December will be posted on February 14 with dates for the January, February and March reports all to be announced at a later date. Business Inventories for November, Feb 14: Business inventories for November will also be posted February 14 with December to be posted March 11. January through February dates for business inventories will be announced. ​Durable Goods for December, Feb 21: Durable goods orders for December will be posted on February 21 with January through March to be announced. ​Wholesale Trade For December, Feb 25: Wholesale trade for December is

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The GDP report on Feb 28 will be a combined first and second estimate. It appears to be a kludge.

Bloomberg offers this U.S. Shutdown Update. I put the releases in date order.

  • Retail Sales for December, Feb 14: Retail sales for December will be posted on February 14 with dates for the January, February and March reports all to be announced at a later date.
  • Business Inventories for November, Feb 14: Business inventories for November will also be posted February 14 with December to be posted March 11. January through February dates for business inventories will be announced.
  • ​Durable Goods for December, Feb 21: Durable goods orders for December will be posted on February 21 with January through March to be announced.
  • ​Wholesale Trade For December, Feb 25: Wholesale trade for December is scheduled for February 25 with dates for January through March to be announced. Housing Starts for December are set for February 26 with dates for January to March likewise to be announced.
  • Factory Orders for December, Feb 27: Factory orders for December are set for February 27 and to be announced at a later date will be January through March.
  • Advance Indicators for December, Feb 27: Advance economic indicators for December -- international trade in goods, retail inventories, wholesale inventories -- will also be posted February 27 with January through March to be announced.
  • 4th-Quarter GDP, February 28: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release fourth-quarter GDP, originally scheduled for January 30, on Thursday, February 28. The BEA is calling this the "initial" release which will compress what are normally the first and second estimates (the second estimate was originally scheduled for February 28). The final release for fourth-quarter GDP remains scheduled for March 28.
  • Personal Income for December, March 1: On Friday, March 1, the BEA will release a single report that will include personal income and outlays for December, which was originally scheduled for January 31, as well as personal income for January as scheduled. Outlays for January, however, as well as the savings rate will not be included in this release.
  • Construction for December, March 4: March 4 will see December construction spending and March 5 December new home sales with January through March data for both series to be announced.
  • ​International Trade for December, March 6: International trade in goods and services for December, which was originally set for February 5, will be posted on Wednesday, March 6.
  • Advance Services, Cancelled: Advance quarterly services for the fourth quarter that was set for March 7 has been canceled and not rescheduled. Final quarterly services for the fourth quarter are scheduled for March 21.

GDP Pot Shot

Construction spending, international trade, and inventories are GDP inputs.

The BEA will run with the advance trade, wholesale and retail inventory indicators released on February 27.

New home sales for December as well as construction appear to be complete pot shots.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock (Mish) is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management (http://www.sitkapacific.com/). Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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